As just about everyone anticipated, the US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rates by 25 basis points, with the targeted range now at 3.50% to 3.75%.
The Federal Open Market Committee noted that job gains have slowed and unemployment has moved up slightly; meanwhile, economic activity has been growing at a moderate pace.
The FOMC said it was still committed to its mandate of 2% inflation and full employment.
While the Fed approved a rate cut, several Committee members opposed the decision.
Stephen Miller voted against the decision, preferring a larger 50 bps cut.
Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid preferred to keep rates where they were.
As always, the FOMC said they were ready to act if the environment changed.
Markets seem pleased with the decision, while interest rates were little changed. Key rates influence lending, including the important mortgage market, which takes its cue from the 10-year.
A big question is what will happen in 2026, with the next FOMC meeting scheduled for January. Kalshi is currently anticipating that the Fed will keep rates at 78% at the next meeting. Polymarket shows just a 21% probability of a 25 bps cut in January.
The presser with Fed Chair Jerome Powell (whose term is up in May) may shed additional light on the decision and expectations going forward.
Update: The return of QE (QE Lite?) and comments by Chair Powell are pushing markets higher as some view his press event as dovish. Powell noted that tariffs are driving part of the inflation (IE, over 2%), but this is a one-time occurrence.
