The US Federal Reserve announced today that it had decided not to change benchmark rates. The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%.
All members of the Committee voted for the decision, except for Stephen I. Miran, who sought a 25 bps reduction.
According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, economic uncertainty has been heightened by existing factors and the conflict in the Middle East.
The war with Iran has caused oil prices to rise considerably. It is difficult to know how long higher prices will remain.
The Committee said it is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate of full employment and inflation at 2%.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the labor market is not a source of inflation. The PPI was published today, showing a hotter-than-expected reading.
While the Fed believes holding rates is the correct move, the inflation data platform TruFlation continues to report that actual inflation is far lower than the numbers the Fed relies on. Chair Powell said they expect continued progress on housing services and on inflation in goods and services coming down.
The real-time inflation calculated by Truflation, based on real transaction prices, dropped significantly below the Fed’s 2% target in January and February, before bouncing back slightly in March.
Trulation US CPI today is 1.54% Y/Y
Truflation core US CPI today is 1.33% Y/YThe… pic.twitter.com/eXrxDE4zXs
— Truflation (@truflation) March 16, 2026
Other comments of note from Chair Powell at the presser.
The Chairman said he has no intention of leaving the Fed until the investigation by the DOJ into his management of the Fed is over.
He also plans to remain as Chairman Pro-Tem until his replacement is approved.
After that, he said he has not decided whether he will remain on the Fed board, as his term is not yet over.
