Russia’s largest bank has issued a cautious but sizable outlook for the country’s newly legalized cryptocurrency market. Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said licensed trading platforms could handle roughly 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles—about $46 billion—during the first 12 months after the rules take effect on September 1.
That figure is framed as conservative: analysts at SberCIB Investment Research expect only about one-fifth of existing activity to move onto regulated venues at first.
The baseline comes from Finance Ministry figures from February, which put daily crypto transactions in Russia near 50 billion rubles, or roughly 18 trillion rubles on an annualized basis.
Most of that flow still travels through peer-to-peer channels, unregistered services, and offshore platforms.
Popov noted that a large share of deals is likely to remain outside the official exchange system even after legalization, because professional market participants have until July 1, 2027, to obtain the necessary licenses.
The market therefore will not be fully built out in year one.
The new framework lets investors buy crypto assets through licensed brokers rather than informal routes.
Retail, or non-qualified, investors face a tight annual cap of 300,000 rubles (around $3,800) through a single intermediary and must first pass a risk-awareness test.
Qualified investors can go up to 3 million rubles (about $38,000) a year. Official venues are expected to start with a narrow list of assets—Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT—while other tokens stay off the regulated boards for now.
Payments in crypto for goods and services inside Russia remain prohibited.Sberbank’s longer-term path assumes gradual migration toward official rails.
Regulated volume could rise to 4.75–5.25 trillion rubles by 2028 and reach about 7.5 trillion rubles, or roughly $87 billion, by 2029 as more participants complete licensing and investors grow more comfortable with the supervised system.
The bank itself has been preparing infrastructure, including plans for trading tools and a digital depository, so it can serve clients once the rules are live.
The forecast highlights a dual-track market: a visible, capped, licensed segment sitting beside a much larger informal one.
Whether the official slice grows faster than the conservative 20 percent starting share will depend on how quickly brokers and exchanges finish registration, how attractive the limited product set proves, and whether retail limits stay in place. For now, Sberbank’s numbers treat the first year as a measured opening rather than an overnight shift of the entire 18-trillion-ruble activity base.