SpaceX, the leading space firm in the US and soon-to-be-public company, is expected to begin trading on Nasdaq tomorrow, June 12, 2026, under the ticker SPCX. The company’s initial public offering (IPO) will raise money at a whopping $1.78 trillion dollars valuation – the largest firm to publicly list its shares ever. Investors will purchase shares at the fixed price of $135. In total, SpaceX will raise $75 billion.
Reports have pegged investor interest at a very high level. A Bloomberg report pegged retail interest at $100 billion. In brief, the listing is oversubscribed.
With many popular IPOs, volatility can be extreme. As SpaceX is super hyped, its shares should see heavy trading on its first day on Nasdaq as some investors get out and others get in. Some will participate in the IPO just to flip shares.
At its last funding round, SpaceX garnered a valuation of around $800 million, so there is a lot of money that may want to book gains.
Some private marketplaces that had supported limited liquidity ahead of the IPO assigned SpaceX a lower valuation. Forge most recently had a share price of $128 or a market cap of around $1.53 trillion.
Lockups are a key variable: founder Elon Musk cannot sell shares for one year, and other insiders can sell only up to 20% of their holdings after the first quarterly report. Future sales also hold restrictions. This may constrain some liquidity.
While outer space is the future for many things, including, perhaps, humanity’s survival, not everyone is hot on the IPO.
Morningstar has been bearish on the offering. Michael Field, Chief Equity Strategist at Morningsar, says investors are naturally excited about the SpaceX IPO, but they believe it’s overvalued.
“Investors should sit this one out and wait for a more attractive entry point down the line. We believe the business has real strengths, particularly in Starlink, but with so many unknown and untested technologies underpinning much of the valuation price, particularly within the AI business, we think the valuation is extremely speculative.”
Contrary to the float price of $135, Morningstar sees a more realistic value of $63 per share, or a significant 53% haircut to the offer price.
While Starlink, the satellite-based internet service which is part of SpaceX, is predicted to have a total addressable market of $1.6 trillion, Morningstar is less enthusiastic, forecasting a diminutive global opportunity of just $129 billion.
The analyst report states:
“Only the most optimistic Moonshot scenario, which requires a rapidly reusable Starship and commercially competitive orbital data centers, approaches the IPO price. The IPO price implies the Moonshot scenario is highly likely, but we think the outlook is very uncertain.”
With markets so focused on SpaceX and its dynamic founder, some believe other sectors, like Bitcoin, have had some of the wind taken out of their sails. At the same time, if SpaceX shares fail to catch a bid and close below the offer price, this could temper overall market expectations.
AI platform Grok, another Musk company, advises investors as follows:
“No, I would not recommend buying SpaceX at the IPO price for most investors—especially not a large allocation. It’s a high-risk, high-valuation bet with strong long-term potential but significant near-term downside probability.”
Whether you are a buyer at $135, an early investor, or a future one, SpaceX is a hot company that has shown a propensity to innovate and excel. The space business is a vision that is still to come, and at the moment, SpaceX is the one leading the charge. While shares could dump or rocket, remember that if you invested $ 1,000 in Apple when it went public, you would be holding $1.2 million in Apple shares today.
This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence and invest only what you can put at risk.
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