Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), viewed as a proxy for Bitcoin, received a solid buy rating from an analyst today.
Siebert Research Analyst Brian Vieten initiated coverage with a buy and a price target of $350.00
Strategy is currently trading at around $98 a share, so the price target represents a significant increase in value for the company.
According to an email received by CI, Vieten declared a bottom in Bitcoin, anticipating a price increase to possibly $175,000. He said the first Bitcoin sale by Strategy spooked the market, creating an entry point for investors:
“The stock is trading at levels last seen during the January 2024 ‘spot Bitcoin ETF approval’ low, and previously, the May 2022 ‘Luna Unwind’ low. Saylor previously called out a deferred tax dynamic, and we think the recent sale of ~$200M Bitcoin was more symbolic, softening the existential conversation around the idea of MSTR selling, vs. a change in the long-term accumulation pattern.”
We bake in 150,000 Bitcoin of purchases in the next 12 months, backed by $20 billion of new STRC issuance, with a ramp in 1H27E amid US GENIUS Act implementation. STRC is the lion’s share of digital credit issuance, which is consistent with our estimates. MSTR recently entered Europe through its STRE product, although inflows have been muted thus far. STRK/ STRD/STRF are also not material drivers for us.”
He noted that in the past, Bitcoin has experienced declines of 77% in 2022, 84% in 2018, and 85% in 2015, with declines diminishing. Since 2022, liquidity is “healthier” with spot Bitcoin ETFs and improved transparency on trading platforms
“Since 2024, spot Bitcoin ETFs expanded access, deepened the capital base, and decentralized ownership with $50 billion of cumulative net inflows spanning millions of retail investors and thousands of institutions. BlackRock’s iBit, for instance, has 1,600 institutional holders with a low average portfolio allocation, according to public filings, of 0.7%.”
Vieten says that Strategy valuation is “spring-loaded.”
“Our 12-month price target is $350/share based on 1x mNAV, ~1 million Bitcoin, and $175,000 per Bitcoin, which is our base case bumped out one quarter (to 3Q26-2Q27). We think it is fair to capitalize pref dividend obligations but believe this is offset by potential upside in Bitcoin, making 1x mNAV appropriate.”
Of course, predicting the price of Bitcoin at any point has been a challenge for all. If anything, Bitcoin, today trading at around $65,000 – down considerably from its all-time high of over $125,000- has been exceptionally volatile.
Siebert’s $350 target is very bullish, but other analysts see the price of $MSTR going higher, with Benchmarket and Bernstein both out with higher price targets
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