The probability that the CLARITY Act will be voted on in the US Senate before the August recess is in decline.
Kalshi currently has a 40% chance of a vote on the bill taking place before August 8th. On July 20th, the probability was over 80%.
Polymarket is even more pessimistic at a 37% chance as of today.
Meanwhile, Senator John Thune, the Majority Leader in the Senate, has expressed his view that the legislation may be pushed past the recess.
Republican Senator Dave McCormick warned that the stakes are real if the bill is not passed into law.
“If the U.S. fails to pass the CLARITY Act, we cede jobs, investment, economic competitiveness, and financial leadership to overseas competitors.”
Republican Senator Bill Hagerty added:
“America needs clear rules of the road for digital assets that protect consumers, support innovation, and keep jobs and investment here in America. Let’s get it across the finish line.”
Republican Senator Tim Scott, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, declared the CLARITY Act protects everyday Americans while creating jobs and strengthening national security by making it more difficult for adversaries to exploit the financial system.
Meanwhile, multiple Democrat senators have voiced their opposition to the bill.
Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad warned that perfect cannot be the enemy of the good, reflecting the frustration of industry participants who have worked diligently to create legislation that is both good for the emerging industry and satisfies protection and illicit activity concerns.