Bitcoin is not having a good week. Today, the top crypto is down by over 3%, trading below $69,000. One month ago, Bitcoin was trading at over $83,000.
Bitcoin’s price is reverberating across the digital asset ecosystem, undermining value at firms like Coinbase, Strategy, and Gemini.
Coinbase shares are down almost 3% today as many investors see its future as tied to Bitcoin’s price. At one point in the past year, Coinbase traded at almost $300 a share.
Gemini Space Station may be the biggest digital-asset disappointment to go public. Gemini is down over 5% today, trading at around $2.48/share. Its 52-week high is over $15 a share, and it has punished investors with poor performance.
Strategy, the godfather of DATs that is all in on $BTC, has halved in value over the past year and is down more than 5% today. This week, MSCI said it was dropping Strategy from its index. That did not help. JP Morgan worries that its exit from the index may impact the firm’s ability to raise debt or equity capital.
Bitfinex Alpha says the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) is the “ultimate dividing line.”
“Bitcoin has reached a critical inflection point, currently testing support at the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) near $67,800. Buyers are urgently aiming to establish a floor here to stop the price from dropping below this bellwether. A close below the 200-week SMA would suggest that Bitcoin is currently trading as a rate-sensitive risk asset rather than a long-horizon store of value. The dividing line between a long-term bull and bear market currently sits around $67,800. Buyers will look to establish a floor here. Fewer active traders track the 200-week SMA today, but it remains an important gauge for trend-following participants.”
Can-Luca Köymen, Investment Strategist at Sygnum Bank, says that $1.6 billion in crypto liquidations have cleared out much of the leverage, but Bitcoin’s next move depends on ETF flows, Nvidia results, and the Anthropic IPO.
Lacie Zhang, Research Lead at Bitget Wallet, says the selloff is being driven by multiple variables including macro risk aversion, persistent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, and an unwind of leveraged long positions.
“Hotter inflation has pushed the probability of a December Federal Reserve rate hike to around 85%, lifting Treasury yields and the US dollar while reducing demand for non-yielding risk assets. Weakness in technology stocks has reinforced the broader de-risking move, and once Bitcoin lost the $72,000-$73,000 area, forced liquidations accelerated the decline. For Bitcoin, $68,000 is the immediate support level, followed by $65,000-$66,000. A decisive break below that zone could expose $62,000-$63,000. On the upside, $72,000-$74,000 is now the first resistance area.”
Zhang also sees the Anthropic IPO as a risk test, with strong demand helping stabilize sentiment across AI, tech, and crypto assets. If sentiment falls short, bears may take the reins of $BTC.
“… a daily close below $68,000, continued ETF redemptions, and renewed expansion in leveraged positioning would increase the probability of another leg lower.”
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