Bernstein has revised its price objective for Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) downward to $140 from the previous $190, according to a research note from analyst Gautam Chhugani. The firm retained its Outperform rating, contending that competitive pressures stemming from the Open USD consortium are overstated and likely to diminish in significance.
The update precedes Circle’s second-quarter earnings, which the analysts project will be essentially flat.
Circulating supply of USDC finished the quarter at approximately $73 billion, down from $77 billion in the prior period, although average supply ticked up modestly to about $76 billion.
Softer cryptocurrency market conditions have temporarily slowed stablecoin expansion, a development Bernstein frames within historical patterns of growth and consolidation rather than as a fundamental change.
Even after the adjustment, the $140 target implies significant upside—around 118 percent—from levels near $64 at the time of the note.
Valuation is derived from a long-term discounted cash flow approach equating to roughly 23 times estimated 2028 adjusted EBITDA.
Near-term forecasts were reduced to reflect weaker crypto markets: the end-2026 USDC supply estimate fell 37 percent to $83 billion, the 2028 figure dropped 40 percent to about $170 billion, and 2026 adjusted EBITDA was trimmed 12 percent to $602 million.
Longer-term assumptions remain unchanged, including a 32 percent compound annual growth rate for USDC over ten years.
Bernstein continues to anticipate total stablecoin supply reaching approximately $4 trillion by 2035, with Circle securing a roughly 30 percent share.
A core element of the note addresses sentiment surrounding Open USD.
The consortium stablecoin, introduced in June with backing from more than 140 payments, banking, and fintech firms such as Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe, had pressured Circle’s shares.
Bernstein argues the threat is less coherent than perceived. Circle has actively secured memorandums of understanding with several of the same organizations listed in the alliance, including Kakao, Samsung, and BNY.
A Samsung representative’s earlier statement noting an absence of formal consultations and uncertainty about any role was cited as evidence of limited coordination.
Visa’s recent commentary that it intends to remain multi-coin and multi-chain, focusing on connecting clients to the broader ecosystem rather than selecting winners, further supports this view.
Additional near-term pressure comes from the Hyperliquid revenue-sharing arrangement, under which a substantial portion of reserve income on USDC balances held there is redirected.
Those balances have expanded past $6 billion, with the full financial effect materializing in the third quarter.
Reserve income nonetheless held relatively steady in the second quarter despite minor rate declines, partially offset by higher yields elsewhere.
Bernstein underscores Circle’s regulatory positioning, including OCC approval for a national trust bank, its liquidity advantages, and ongoing expansion into payments, real-world asset tokenization, and related infrastructure.
Future growth is expected to be driven by partnerships in financial services and the emerging agentic economy. While short-term estimates have been recalibrated, the firm maintains that USDC’s status as a leading regulated dollar stablecoin supports a constructive long-term outlook.