Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW), a boutique investment firm owned by Stifel, has issued a bullish outperform rating on Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and set a $237 price target.
According to the report viewed by CI, KBW views Coinbase as the preeminent franchise and a cycle call given the stock’s continued sensitivity to crypto prices and activity. The firm sees the cycle as turning in Coinbase’s favor.
KBW anticipates an EBITDA of 24% above the current consensus.
“We see a compelling case for improved returns this cycle, as stablecoin float revenue raises the earnings floor and Everything Exchange products, including prediction markets and perps, improve invested capital turnover. The catch is CEX crypto volumes grew just 5% estimated from the 2021 cycle peak to the 2025 peak, as turnover declined and DEXs gained share. Against this backdrop, we believe investors should favor regulated share gainers. COIN stands out, with its estimated share of CEX volume rising from 1.9% in 2021 to 8.2% in Q2:26, driven by organic growth and the Deribit acquisition. We expect further global gains, particularly in Europe, alongside continued U.S. leadership and onchain monetization through Base.”
Coinbase has had a choppy 2026, trading far lower than its 52-week high of over $400 a share. Coinbase’s price has been somewhat tied to Bitcoin, with Coinbase rising alongside the world’s most popular crypto. Before the CLARITY Act failed, Coinbase caught a bid, then dove lower when the legislation failed in the Senate. In July, Coinbase traded in the $140s, but just last week, it moved above $200 on renewed optimism and remains one of the highest-beta midcaps.
The KBW price target is based on a 24X EV/EBITDA multiple. While there remain many risk points, such as a lack of regulatory clarity, the expectation that Coinbase will continue to garner global share within the centralized crypto exchange segment, along with infrastructure – exemplified by today’s deal with Citi- and traditional offerings, may bode well for the Fintech.
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