With a cloture vote scheduled for today and market participants hopeful the bill will move forward, the CLARITY Act, crypto market infrastructure legislation, continues to have a dim outlook on prediction markets that the bill will be approved.
Kalshi currently has just a 33% expectation that it will become law before July 1, 2027.
Polymarket pegs the probability at 20% that it will become law by the end of the year (December 31, 2026).
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy, predicts that if the CLARITY Act doesn’t advance today, the US will probably not get crypto regulation for a long time – if ever:
“This would be terrible for the USA and force more of our industry offshore. The digital and blockchain revolution will go on. Two more years for the SEC and CFTC to set rules and allow businesses to get started. But a longer term uncertainty which isn’t good. Asking Senators on both sides to see the big picture.”
Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, says the case for the bill rests on one number: that 88% of exchange volume sits outside the US. If the US introduces new rules, offshore platforms may return to the US or set up operations there.
“But regulation is only part of why that volume sits offshore. Global venues also offer perpetual futures, leverage, tokenized equities, and markets that never close; products and structures that the CLARITY Act does not itself make available to US retail. Where the vote matters is in what firms are building against. The SEC is already moving on offerings and has broker-dealer and market-structure rules on its agenda. Those are real and useful. However, if the CLARITY Act does not advance, more of the framework will depend on agency rulemaking, which is more exposed to changes between administrations.”
Chen highlights that even if the US gets crypto rules, a licensing program can cost a platform millions of dollars and take years to gain approval.
“…building against rules that could change under a future administration is a very different investment decision from building against legislation. Firms will still invest in the US, but will do it more cautiously. Today’s vote is therefore about the durability of the framework the industry is being asked to build on.”
Insiders expect regulators like the SEC to move forward with new rules regardless of whether the CLARITY Act is approved. Unfortunately, regulations are easier to change, and a change in government could mean rules approved during this administration could be erased if a forthcoming administration does not support digital asset innovation.