The US stock market’s current bull run reached its fourth anniversary this week, marking a sustained advance that began from the October 2022 lows and has unfolded largely in parallel with the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence technologies.
The S&P 500 has roughly more than doubled since its closing low on October 12, 2022, posting a gain of about 118 percent over the four-year span.
That recovery started amid elevated inflation and an aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle, and it has continued through subsequent episodes of banking stress, geopolitical tensions, and shifting interest-rate expectations.
Market observers note that the advance has not been especially extreme by historical standards for bull markets that reach this stage; prior cycles since the 1950s have averaged larger cumulative gains, while several have lasted longer than four years.
A defining feature of the rally has been its alignment with the AI boom.
Momentum accelerated after the public launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, which focused investor attention on generative AI applications, the semiconductor supply chain, and related infrastructure spending.
Major technology names tied to AI development and deployment have led much of the index’s advance, contributing to elevated concentration in a relatively small group of large-cap stocks.
Beyond equity performance, AI-related activity has also registered in broader economic data.
Analysis from Oxford Economics indicates that AI has accounted for roughly one-third of recent US economic growth, reflecting strength in capital expenditures on data centers, computing equipment, software, and associated power infrastructure.
This combination of equity gains and AI-driven growth has coexisted with a higher interest-rate environment than prevailed in the decade before 2022.
With yields on bonds now approaching 5 percent, the opportunity cost of holding equities has increased.
One investor commenting on LinkedIn highlighted the resulting shift in the risk-reward calculus: the central question is no longer simply whether stocks can continue to rise, but whether expected equity returns sufficiently compensate for the incremental risk relative to safer fixed-income alternatives.
Higher yields raise the bar for corporate earnings growth and valuation multiples to justify continued outperformance.
Looking ahead, the market’s ability to extend the advance into a fifth year will depend on the durability of AI-related capital spending, the trajectory of corporate profits, and the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Historical patterns for bull markets that have already reached four years show mixed outcomes in year five, with average returns that are positive but more modest than earlier stages of the cycle.
Persistent concentration in AI-linked leaders remains both a source of strength and a potential vulnerability if growth expectations moderate or if broader market participation fails to broaden.
Meanwhile, ongoing debates over the pace of AI adoption across the wider economy, labor-market effects in exposed occupations, and the sustainability of elevated technology valuations will continue to shape investor sentiment.
The four-year milestone underscores how technological shifts can power extended equity advances even against a backdrop of elevated rates and periodic uncertainty. Whether the current cycle maintains its momentum will hinge on the balance between AI-driven earnings support and the higher hurdle now set by bond yields.