More gloom and doom in the marketplace. Forge is echoing what we are hearing from others that without heightened demand, prices are in decline for shares in private firms.
According to a recent report by Forge, private companies are trading at a whopping 58% discount to their last primary funding round (as of the month of July).
Forge is a private securities marketplace providing liquidity for shareholders in private firms. Frequently, these firms give shares to employees as part of a compensation package. These individuals may want to sell some of their shares in a pre-IPO firm, and Forge is there to help.
According to the Forge Private Market Index, Year to Date returns are pretty dismal. In a hypothetical portfolio of private firms, the Index has tanked by 17.1%. The QQQ has performed far better. Of course, if you look back over the past three years, the Forge PMI performs better than the QQQ.
In a blog post, Forge says that, on average, in Q2 2023, firms waited for an average of 19.7 months between funding rounds, and 101 Forge-listed firms raised money in Q2 2023 – a huge decline from the peak in Q2 2021 when more than triple or 318 firms raised cash.
Forge shared some more heartening data sharing that the top 10% of companies traded at a 16% premium. Companies in the top 25% improved from a 41% discount in June to an 18% discount in July.
Putting everything together, Forge believes they are seeing signs of stabilization in private markets, and bid/ask spreads are tightening. So have we bottomed? Or are things just hitting pause before another step lower?
Markets will probably need an “all clear” signal from the Fed. It would also help if Russia loses in Ukraine and the Chinese decide not to invade Taiwan. Hope springs eternal. Let’s hope for better days going forward.
