Robinhood (Nasdaq: HOOD) has entered the Prediction Market with a new offering allowing its users to bet on the Presidential election. The service is powered by the recently announced Robinhood Derivatives service which was revealed a couple weeks ago at the Hood Summit.
Robinhood will be competing with other Prediction Market platforms like Kalshi which reported last week they anticipate over $100 million in Presidential election bets. Interactive Brokers is another platform that is offering forecast contracts on the elections.
In a blog post, Robinhood said that the decision to enter the Prediction Market was driven by customer demand and interest in accessing real time market trading.
Robinhood stated:
“Event contracts allow customers to trade on the outcome of specific events, such as whether a candidate will win an election. Robinhood’s presidential election event contracts will begin rolling out to a limited number of customers today. Customers must apply and meet certain criteria to be approved for a RHD account, including being a U.S. citizen and more. Once approved, customers will be able to trade based on their prediction for “who will win the 2024 presidential election.” There will be two contracts to choose from–one for Kamala Harris and one for Donald Trump.”
This event contract is offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC through ForecastEx, LLC. Robinhood Derivatives is a registered futures commission merchant with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Robinhood has created a Help Page/FAQ that explains how the platform operates.
As of this writing, the Robinhood Prediction Market is displaying a 404.
If you look at Kalshi, former President Donald Trump has a 62.2% chance of winning, and Vice President Kamala Harris has a 37.8% chance of winning (Interactive Brokers is around the same). The race remains close, and like many polls, Prediction Markets can get it wrong.
