Regtech ComplyAdvantage has shared 2025 predictions from professionals working at the Regtech company, which specializes in financial crime intelligence.
As mentioned in the update from Regtech company ComplyAdvantage, the predictions span the future of sanctions during a Trump presidency, as well as corporate transparency/beneficial ownership information, real-time payments and public/private partnerships to fight financial crime.
Here are the key predictions for 2025 by ComplyAdvantage:
1 – With Trump in power, U.S. sanctions will diverge from European allies, placing greater pressure on Europe to lead and enforce its own sanctions regime.
Historically, Western governments have “considered the U.S. the leader in implementing sanctions.”
However, with Trump’s Republicans in the majority across the federal government, such measures will be “applied more unpredictably.”
As a result, ComplyAdvantage pointed out that we “could see major sanctions divergence between the U.S. and Europe in the hottest geopolitical conflicts — Ukraine and the Middle East — for the first time in recent memory.”
Andrew Davies, global head of regulatory affairs at ComplyAdvantage, added:
“Donald Trump’s campaign focus on economic protectionism could even make 2025 the year conventional sanctions begin to be replaced by tariffs. The efficacy of many sanctions regimes has long been questioned, and we know from his first term that Trump sees punitive economic measures as the best way to push for U.S. interests abroad. A convergence of these trends could see the U.S. issue more tariffs than sanctions in 2025.”
2 – Financial institutions face a new threat to their bottom lines – and reputations – as regulators ramp up the pressure on corporate transparency. Expect to see greater compliance resources spent on beneficial ownership.
The legally binding beneficial ownership registration requirements introduced by the Corporate Transparency Act came “into force in the U.S. on January 1, 2024. Despite this, uptake has remained lower than expected due to limited awareness of the requirements.”
In the U.K., the registrars of Companies House now also “have greater powers to ensure information is reported correctly.”
In an October 2024 threat assessment, the CEO of Companies House said,
“It is almost certain that the scale of money laundering through U.K. limited companies is underestimated,” and noted that the body would no longer be “a passive acceptor of duly delivered documents.”
Iain Armstrong, Global Regulatory Affairs Practice Lead at ComplyAdvantage, said:
“Across both sides of the Atlantic, beneficial ownership registries and reporting requirements have been beefed up in recent months. This reduces the risk of false reporting by illegitimate companies and shows legitimate firms that enforcement agencies see beneficial ownership data as more than a nice-to-have add-on to their ‘more serious’ due diligence requirements. With regulators having focused in 2024 on information-based campaigns to educate firms on their requirements, as we head into 2025, we expect to see greater implementation through enforcement — for example, reprimands and even financial penalties. These could hit firms’ bottom lines and pose a reputational risk if enforcement actions are covered in the media.”
3 – As consumer adoption of real-time payments accelerates in the U.S., non-banking providers are ready to access payment rails and drive further innovation in the sector.
There is a notable gap between financial institutions’ and customers’ taking advantage of real-time payments.
For instance, financial institutions’ adoption of the FedNow real-time payment service has risen by “more than 2,100% in the last 12 months, yet real-time payments still account for less than 2% of U.S. payment transactions.”
This indicates that while the infrastructure is now “largely in place, more needs to be done to educate and inspire consumers about the opportunities surrounding real-time payments.”
Given the higher uptake levels in other developed economies, there is “no reason to think U.S. consumers won’t also take greater advantage of faster payments in 2025.”
Andrew Davies, global head of regulatory affairs at ComplyAdvantage:
“All the ingredients are there for accelerating real-time payments in 2025. The U.S. also remains the only G7 country prohibiting non-banking providers from accessing payment rails. This is an issue that policymakers are looking at, and if we see progress on this in 2025, it could add further fuel to the expansion of real-time payments in the next 12 months by allowing more non-traditional financial institutions – incumbents or emerging challengers – that can offer consumers real-time payment services without having to open a new account or switch providers, the greater the uptake will be.”
4 – Public-private partnerships will make an important leap forward in 2025 – if compliance professionals get their way.
Forty-seven percent of compliance professionals said stronger public/private partnerships and data-sharing protocols would “have the greatest impact, while only 38 percent said larger fines.”
ComplyAdvantage’s 2025 State of Financial Crime report (full survey results to be shared in January) shows that global compliance professionals “do not believe fines are the best way to improve the enforcement of anti-money laundering regulations.”
Iain Armstrong, regulatory affairs practice lead at ComplyAdvantage:
“If fines were the answer to all regulatory enforcement challenges, every financial institution would function perfectly. As we all know, that isn’t the case. While we believe government bodies like the National Crime Agency and OFAC would benefit from greater resources, one silver lining to the current situation is the need to ‘do more with less’ and find creative ways to improve enforcement. Our survey shows public/private partnerships – which have enormous wider strategic value in fighting financial crime – could support on enforcement too.”