Dr. Sean Dawson, Head of Research at onchain options DeFi protocol, Derive.xyz ($94.8M TVL, $7.4B total trade volume) noted that while Bitcoin hits a major milestone of reaching above $100,000 for the first time, optimism has surged on Derive.xyz, with an “18.7% chance of BTC reaching $200,000 by September 26, 2025 – four-times higher since the US election.”
Dr. Dawson also mentioned that Ethereum is not far behind with an all-time high prediction of “23.6% chance of reaching $8,000 by the same date.”
Dawson added that current market dynamics also “show a 10.5% probability of Ethereum hitting $6,000 and a 6% chance for Bitcoin to reach $150,000, both by January 31.”
While these projections are based on available data, there’s no guarantee of anything in financial markets. Global developments, unexpected political / economic events, and seemingly negative news can shift sentiment and this can lead to drastically different movements.
They further noted that the sharp increase in the 25 delta skews for Bitcoin to “8.8% and 10.3% for 7 and 30 days respectively, compared to 24 hours ago, shows that traders are heavily favouring calls over puts to maximise on potential upward movements.”
Dawson continued:
“Additionally, Bitcoin’s ATM implied volatility has reflected these expectations with a significant increase, peaking at 72% recently, before adjusting to 61%. This indicates anticipation of substantial price movements in the coming week. The heightened market activity and trader confidence are mirrored in Derive.xyz’s performance, with our total value locked (TVL) reaching a new peak of $94.8 million. This milestone solidifies Derive.xyz’s position as a dominant player in the DeFi space, poised to leverage these optimistic market trends, as we move toward a TGE on January 15.”
As covered, Derive.xyz (TVL $79.8M, total trade volume $7.2B), is the decentralized protocol that creates unique and programmable onchain options, perpetuals, and structured products.
Co-founded by Nick Forster, Jake Fitzgerald, Mike Spain and Dom Romanowski, it empowers users with easily “accessible automated strategies to build, grow, and preserve wealth.”