Bitcoin has been in reverse for a couple of weeks now. Far off its all-time high of over $124,000 earlier this year, Bitcoin is now trading sub $90,000 – currently at $86,500.
This represents a significant loss in value of around 30%.
While traditional stock markets began the day stronger after NVIDIA’s positive results last night, bears are in control, as the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow are all lower.
Much of the calamitous trading is due to the economy. The most recent jobs report was stronger than anticipated, while the previous months’ report was adjusted to a negative number. Unemployment inched higher.
Inflation remains sticky, with headline reported a bit higher last month at 3% year over year, a slight increase from August and the highest since last January.
The data deluge creates a foggy picture for the US Federal Reserve and its next meeting. At one point, a rate cut was virtually assured. Today, the odds are less than 50% at around 30%.
Kalshi has a rate cut expectation of 34%. Polymarket is about the same.
Regarding Bitcoin, while there may be a good argument for a risk-off environment, some believe that crypto investors are moving their money to more promising assets. Once thought of as a store of value or digital gold, Bitcoin’s volatility makes it more of a trading play for individuals looking for a swing trade.
Nic Puckrin, crypto analyst and co-founder of The Coin Bureau, shared a bullish comment on Bitcoin earlier today. He reflected on the strong trading driven by NVIDIA while wondering if the bulls or bears would win the battle as “Bitcoin tends to follow tech.” Puckrin thought that if the bulls won, there could have been a reversal. Unfortunately, they lost.
“… if macroeconomic jitters turn into full-blown panic and the sell-off intensifies, there is strong resistance around $75,000, which marks the April 2025 low,” said Puckrin.
