For Edward Robinson, deputy managing director for economic policy and chief economist at Monetary Authority of Singapore, the gains from artificial intelligence (AI) are unlikely to arrive quickly due to a mix of shocks from tariffs, energy, and geopolitics.
During the 13th Asian Monetary Policy Forum in Singapore, Robinson said AI may eventually boost productivity, but its benefits are unlikely to materialize quickly enough to shield economies from such shocks.
The full supply-side productivity benefits from AI “will not materialise for some time,” Robinson said, adding that GDP growth so far appears to have been supported more by capital spending than broad-based labour productivity gains.
His remarks placed AI within a wider policy challenge facing central banks: how to manage economies being hit simultaneously by tariffs, geopolitical concerns, and technological shocks.
Robinson said global trade had so far proved more resilient than feared after the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, with ASEAN trade with every major region rising and manufactured exports growing nearly 14%.
But he warned that resilience should not be overstated. Tariffs have rerouted trade through regional supply chains, but they also raise inflation, distort sourcing decisions, and can expose smaller economies to sudden import competition.
Robinson said about 90% of last year’s tariff increase on US imports was borne domestically by US firms and consumers, and further tariff increases or the depletion of stockpiled imports could push prices higher.
He also said the oil shock from the Middle East conflict is now preoccupying governments and central banks, especially in Asia, where many economies are large energy importers.
Macroeconomic demand-management tools are not well suited to oil shocks, Robinson said, making supply-side resilience, including investment in renewable energy, more important.
Central banks, he added, can no longer operate as if insulated from politics and must protect their credibility as technically competent and impartial assessors of economic and financial developments.
