Galaxy Research, part of Galaxy Digital (Nasdaq: GLXY), has lowered its estimate for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to a coin-flip 50 percent probability. The revision, detailed in the firm’s latest weekly research note, marks a drop from the 60 percent odds assigned just three weeks earlier. Head of firmwide research Alex Thorn cited the tightening Senate legislative calendar—not any deterioration in the bill’s underlying policy merits—as the primary driver.
The CLARITY Act, formally the Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act, represents the most comprehensive effort yet to bring federal regulatory clarity to the US cryptocurrency sector.
It aims to draw clear jurisdictional lines between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, establish criteria for determining when digital assets qualify as securities or commodities, and provide liability protections for blockchain developers, node operators, and decentralized protocols.
Proponents argue the framework would reduce regulatory uncertainty that has long hampered innovation and institutional participation in digital assets.
The bill cleared a significant hurdle in mid-May when the Senate Banking Committee advanced it on a bipartisan 15-9 vote.
It was placed on the Senate legislative calendar shortly afterward as calendar item No. 423.
Yet meaningful forward movement has since slowed. Staff-level negotiations continue between the Banking and Agriculture Committees to reconcile their respective versions of the text, but no unified bill has been released publicly, and no floor vote date has been scheduled.
Several substantive issues remain open. Ethics provisions continue to draw scrutiny, with some Democratic senators insisting on stronger conflict-of-interest standards.
Law-enforcement-focused lawmakers are also pressing for adjustments to developer protections contained in related language.
At least two Republican senators are expected to oppose the measure regardless, meaning Democratic support will be essential for reaching the 60-vote threshold typically required to advance major legislation in the Senate.
The latest downgrade stems largely from mechanical constraints on the Senate floor.
With the August recess approaching and multiple must-pass items competing for limited time—including reauthorization of key foreign surveillance authorities and the annual defense authorization bill—opportunities for extended debate and amendment on a complex crypto bill are shrinking rapidly.
Additional political friction, including a standoff over a housing package tied to unrelated election legislation, has further crowded the agenda.
Galaxy analysts warned that without a firm commitment to schedule floor consideration by early July, the measure would likely slip into September, when midterm election dynamics could make controversial votes even harder to secure.
Despite the reduced odds, Thorn emphasized that the bill retains meaningful momentum.
The committee’s bipartisan approval, its placement on the calendar, and ongoing behind-the-scenes negotiations all point to genuine engagement from stakeholders.
For legislation of this scope and technical complexity, he noted, even odds still represent a constructive outlook.
Positive developments—such as a public agreement on reconciled committee text or credible progress on ethics and developer protections that secures additional Democratic backing—could quickly lift confidence again.
More than 200 cryptocurrency companies and advocacy groups have separately urged Senate leadership to prioritize floor time, underscoring broad industry support for moving the measure forward before the legislative window closes.
The adjustment by Galaxy Research reflects the perennial challenge of advancing major policy in a compressed congressional calendar rather than any fundamental loss of political will. Whether the CLARITY Act ultimately passes in 2026 will depend heavily on leadership decisions in the coming weeks.