Blockchain analytics platform Arkham has introduced a new Elo-style rating system designed to measure the forecasting skill of traders on prediction markets, particularly those active on Polymarket. Launched on June 29, 2026, the feature aims to spotlight consistent performers by focusing on prediction accuracy rather than raw profits or trading volume.
The Prediction Market ELO system adapts the well-known rating methodology from chess and competitive gaming.
It evaluates traders based solely on how often their bets prove correct and how difficult those successful calls were.
A correct prediction boosts a trader’s rating relative to the broader pool of participants.
Notably, successful wagers on lower-probability outcomes—those the market prices as less likely—deliver a larger rating increase than bets on more obvious favorites.
Crucially, the system ignores bet size and overall profit-and-loss figures.
This design choice allows smaller-scale traders with strong accuracy records to rank higher than high-volume bettors whose edge may stem more from position sizing than from superior insight.
Losses and unsuccessful trades are implicitly factored in through the accuracy metric, providing a cleaner view of forecasting ability.
Early data from the rollout highlights clear differences between the new rating and traditional leaderboards.
The top-rated trader by Elo, known as GardenerCx, specializes in short-term crypto up-or-down markets on five-minute intervals.
This trader maintains a 64.3% win rate across more than 2,600 resolved bets and holds an Elo score of 2,389.
In contrast, a high-PnL trader named swisstony has generated $11.4 million in profits, primarily through sports betting, yet registers a lower Elo of 1,514 despite a still-respectable 52.9% win rate.
This places swisstony in the top 7% of traders but well behind GardenerCx on the skill-focused leaderboard.
The launch arrives as prediction market activity continues to expand rapidly across major platforms.
Polymarket and Kalshi have seen surging volumes in categories ranging from politics and sports to cryptocurrency events, drawing both retail and professional participants.
Arkham’s tool builds on its existing prediction market analytics suite, which already tracks top performers by profit, displays full position histories, and links on-chain activity to real-world entities.
By separating skill from capital deployment, the Elo ratings offer market watchers, copy traders, and analysts a fresh lens for identifying sharp forecasters.
Users can now sort and compare traders not just by who made the most money, but by who consistently makes better calls under varying levels of difficulty.
The ratings appear on Arkham’s prediction markets analytics section under a dedicated “Rating” tab, complementing existing PnL-based rankings.
This development underscores a broader industry shift toward more sophisticated performance metrics in decentralized and on-chain betting environments. As prediction markets mature and attract greater liquidity, tools that isolate genuine predictive edge from luck or leverage are likely to gain traction among serious participants.
