Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom, has outlined a scenario in which Bitcoin could experience further short-term weakness before ultimately surging to extraordinary heights. In a recent essay, the crypto commentator suggested that the leading digital asset might trade sideways or decline temporarily amid shifting capital flows, yet he maintains a highly optimistic long-term outlook driven by macroeconomic forces.
Hayes frames the current multi-trillion-dollar push into artificial intelligence infrastructure as more akin to a leveraged real estate credit expansion than a classic technology growth story.
He draws parallels to the 2008 global financial crisis rather than the earnings-focused dot-com bust of 2000.
In his view, hyperscalers—the major cloud providers constructing vast data centers—are essentially financing property developments filled with rapidly obsolescing hardware.
Newer generations of chips will deliver far greater computational power with less energy, potentially leaving lenders exposed to facilities packed with outdated equipment.
According to Hayes, capital has been heavily diverted toward AI-related credit and equities.
This absorption of available liquidity contributed to Bitcoin peaking in October 2025 before roughly halving in value.
He argues that the flood of funds into data centers, power infrastructure, and related projects has limited the dollars available to propel further gains in cryptocurrency markets.
As a result, Bitcoin may remain range-bound for a period, oscillating between approximately $60,000 and $70,000, with a possible further decline toward the $50,000 level.
Additional near-term pressure could stem from market concerns about potential Bitcoin sales by large corporate holders such as Strategy Inc.
Despite this cautious near-term assessment, Hayes remains firmly bullish over a longer horizon.
He anticipates that the pace of announced AI capital expenditure will begin to decelerate around mid-to-late 2027, becoming more evident by 2028.
Credit issuance, however, is likely to continue expanding during this slowdown phase—mirroring the period in the mid-2000s when mortgage lending grew even after US home price appreciation had already cooled.
When growth in actual construction eventually contracts, over-leveraged participants holding weaker AI-related debt could face solvency challenges.
At that point, Hayes expects authorities to intervene aggressively.
Once policymakers recognize that the AI-driven contribution to GDP growth resembles a conventional property bubble, they will likely respond with substantial monetary expansion—potentially exceeding the scale of the 2008 response.
This injection of liquidity, he contends, would ultimately propel Bitcoin higher.
“This will ultimately drive bitcoin to one million and beyond,” Hayes wrote, noting that unlike previous crises, Bitcoin already exists as a mature asset capable of capturing the upside from such interventions.
He emphasizes that governments, particularly in the United States and China, have strong incentives to support the AI sector on national security and economic grounds.
This backing could take forms that create significant new liquidity, which historically benefits scarce, decentralized assets like Bitcoin.
Hayes views Bitcoin as a sensitive indicator of fiat liquidity conditions, positioning it to thrive once the misallocated capital in the AI buildout forces a broader policy response.
While the timeline for any such credit stresses remains years away, and current market conditions reflect a corrective phase within a still-unfolding AI cycle, Hayes’s analysis underscores the interplay between traditional finance, technology investment, and cryptocurrency valuations.
Investors following his framework are watching liquidity dynamics and capital expenditure trends closely as potential signals for Bitcoin’s next major moves.
