Stablecoins could put significant pressure on traditional payment companies as their use expands, with financial markets suggesting that the passage of new U.S. rules for digital assets could reduce the value of incumbent payment firms by about $300 billion, an IMF study said.
The study, “Stablecoins and the Future of Payments: Evidence from Financial Markets,” examined stock-market reactions to key votes on the GENIUS Act, which establishes a regulatory framework for payment stablecoins.
The researchers found that listed payment companies posted returns about 1% lower than other financial firms during the five trading hours following the decisive congressional vote.
The relative decline represented about $21.5 billion in market capitalization, according to the study.
The researchers said the reaction was consistent with investors lowering their expectations for the future cash flows of incumbent payment firms rather than simply pricing in greater uncertainty or volatility.
The study then used prediction-market data to account for the fact that investors had anticipated the legislation’s passage.
Based on that analysis, the researchers estimated that the law could imply an approximately 18% reduction in the aggregate market value of incumbent payment firms, equivalent to about $300 billion.
The estimate is not an observed loss, however. The researchers described it as a back-of-the-envelope calculation and said sensitivity analysis produced a range of $220 billion to $470 billion, corresponding to an estimated decline of 13% to 27%.
The impact varied across the payment industry. Companies with greater exposure to cross-border payments experienced larger negative stock-market reactions, while firms benefiting from proprietary network effects and those already offering crypto-related services did not show statistically significant relative declines, the study found.
The findings suggest investors view stablecoins as a potential source of competition for established payment networks, particularly as regulatory clarity improves.
The researchers also cautioned against interpreting stablecoin transaction volumes as a direct measure of payment adoption.
Citing Allium Labs, the paper said fewer than 10% of recorded stablecoin transactions involve genuine users, with the remainder including bot activity and transfers between wallets controlled by the same entity.
The study said the GENIUS Act requires designated payment stablecoins to be backed 100% by liquid assets and introduces monthly public reserve disclosures and audit requirements for issuers.
The paper is an IMF working paper and does not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its executive board or management.