The State of the Union will be delivered tonight by President Donald Trump. This is the first time Trump has addressed a joint session of Congress and the entire US. He is expected to provide an update on his Administration’s goals and defend his performance to date.
Throwing an interesting twist into the performance is the expectation that the US Men’s Hockey Team will be in attendance following its victory over Canada to win Olympic Gold.
There is always a lot of speculation about what issues or policies a President will discuss, but now we have prediction markets to help sort things out and allow interested individuals to bet on specific outcomes.
Polymarket has a listing titled “What will Trump say during the State of the Union address?” At the top of the list is how many times the President will say ‘America’ or ‘American’. At over 50 times it is an 83% probability and at over 25 a 96% probability. It is pretty much a lock it will be many times.
Perhaps more interesting than mentioning Kamala Harris or Joe Biden, there is a 27% estimate that Trump will mention Crypto or Bitcoin. There is a 78% estimation that Trump will mention Artificial Intelligence (AI).
We would be remiss not to mention that Kalshi is also hosting multiple event-driven outcomes surrounding the State of the Union. Whether you are making a bet or not, prediction markets have performed pretty well when anticipating actual outcomes.
The State of the Union is scheduled to take place at 9 PM ET tonight. As Trump loves to talk, and he is actually pretty good when he stays on message and adheres to the teleprompter, the speech, at a minimum, should be entertaining.
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