Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, believes the cryptocurrency market is on the verge of a significant shift. In a July 1, 2026, memo, he outlined why he expects a fresh bull market for Bitcoin and the wider digital asset space to begin this autumn, following a period of necessary market cleansing.
Hougan’s outlook comes as Bitcoin has experienced renewed volatility, recently dipping below $60,000.
Much of the recent pressure stems from developments surrounding Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and its perpetual preferred stock, STRC.
Launched to deliver high yields while trading near its $100 par value, STRC attracted substantial investor capital during the prior upswing.
Strategy used those proceeds to aggressively purchase Bitcoin, becoming one of the market’s most consistent large-scale buyers.
As Bitcoin prices corrected, however, STRC’s trading price fell sharply—to around $75—raising questions about dividend sustainability and triggering broader market unease.
Strategy responded by adjusting its approach: it raised the dividend rate to 12%, introduced a framework allowing periodic Bitcoin sales to cover obligations while maintaining cash reserves, and signaled greater flexibility in how STRC trades going forward.
Hougan views this unwinding not as a crisis but as a classic feature of market cycles.
Bull markets often draw in yield-seeking capital through creative financial structures and leverage.
When conditions change, that excess must exit before a durable bottom can form.
He compares the current situation to the unwinding of premiums in certain Bitcoin investment products years earlier, which ultimately helped clear the path for recovery.“
The volatility in STRC is a natural and important part of the crypto cycle,” Hougan wrote.
He added that he is “convinced the bottom is closer than ever—and that we will enter a new bull market in the fall.”A key theme in his analysis is the evolving source of Bitcoin demand.
For years, Strategy served as a near one-way buyer. Hougan expects that role to diminish, with Strategy potentially buying or selling depending on market conditions rather than acting as a perpetual accumulator.
In its place, he sees traditional institutions stepping up: global banks, asset managers, pension funds, endowments, sovereign wealth funds, and financial advisors.
Signs of this shift are already visible in expanding Bitcoin ETF availability on major platforms, new product launches by firms like Morgan Stanley, and growing interest from state-level and international entities.
Hougan suggests several markers investors can watch for confirmation of a bottom: assets like MSTR trading at a discount to their Bitcoin holdings, extreme readings on fear-and-greed sentiment indicators, and negative funding rates in derivatives markets that reflect heavy short interest.
While acknowledging that prices could still move lower in the short term,
Hougan emphasizes that long-term investors should focus less on pinpointing the exact low and more on the cycle’s eventual upside.
The current phase, he argues, is clearing away structures that no longer align with Bitcoin’s maturing market.
The memo reflects Bitwise’s broader view that institutional adoption continues to build structural support beneath the surface, even amid price weakness.
With the unwinding process underway, Hougan sees conditions aligning for renewed momentum later this year. For investors, the message is one of cautious optimism: the pain of deleveraging may be nearing its end, potentially setting the stage for the next leg higher in Bitcoin and crypto.