Analysis by Experian and Reward reveal key shopping trends ahead of crucial ‘Golden Quarter.’
Informative and timely insights from Experian, in partnership with Reward, reveal that consumers – despite the festive tradition of heading to the high street – are likely to do “more of their Christmas shopping online this year than previously.”
This is according to analysis based on transaction data from over 4 million UK cardholders across more than “4000 retail brands, which found year-to-date online spending rose by 4% compared to the same time in 2023, with instore purchases falling by 2%.”
If this upward online trend continues, UK retail is set to benefit from an extra £28 billion in spend during the ‘Golden Quarter’ (November to January), a £1.1 billion boost on last year’s sales.
Beyond online and in-store sales, looking at year-to-date spending compared to the same period last year, the research “highlights key shopping trends that have defined 2024 and are likely to shape how Brits approach Christmas gifting this year.”
Analysis revealed that shoppers are increasingly “turning to the second-hand market for sustainable bargains.”
A comparison of transactions at online second-hand marketplaces “showed a 21% increase in year-on-year total sales.”
Interestingly, this growth is not just driven by “younger consumers but also by older age groups. Shoppers aged 45-54 and 55+ have led the surge, with sales climbing by 56% and 59% respectively over the past year.”
If spending with second-hand retailers continues at current rates, the sector could be set to generate “£363 million in the Golden Quarter, an additional £111 million increase on the same period the year before, as more consumers turn to sustainable gifting options.”
Advances in tech have sparked a surge in social commerce, meaning shoppers can now buy directly from retailers “without ever leaving their social media feeds.” Comparing August sales year-on-year, “spend insights show an impressive 32% jump.”
If this trend continues, forecasts suggest a “£212 million boost to the sector this Golden Quarter – up by £123 million in 2023 – as highly influenced shoppers are drawn to Christmas deals while browsing their feeds.”
Insights drawn from spend on ticketing websites “found an increase of 9% when compared to 2023.”
The growth can be attributed to millennials, with those aged 35-44 increasing their spending on tickets “by 10% in the last year, to just 4% for those aged 18-34.”
What’s more, spend analysis from experience providers shows a steady 6% year on year sales increase, indicating that consumers “are increasingly favouring experiences and one-off events.”
This trend suggests that people may look to prioritize “special occasion purchases over traditional gifts this Christmas.”
The good news is there is a great deal of insight available to brands to “help them make a success of such an important time of year.”
The consumer insights from Experian and Reward have been published in a new report, and is the start of regular series which will “highlight new and emerging spending trends from UK consumers.”
The methodology
Golden Quarter spend analysis is based on insight created by Reward from transactional and merchant information “derived from its Customer Engagement programs.”
Using insights from “over 1.4 billion” card transactions made by 4 million UK cardholders across more than 4000 retail brands, Reward analyzed historic transaction trends “over the Golden Quarter period (Nov-Jan) to create predicted forecasts for the 2024 season.”
This is then scaled to give an “estimate of the expected nationwide impact.”
Experian is the global information services company.
During life’s big moments – from buying a home or a car, to sending a child to college, to growing a business by “connecting with new customers – they empower consumers and our clients to manage their data with confidence.”
They help individuals to take financial control and access financial services, businesses to make “smarter decisions and thrive, lenders to lend more responsibly, and organizations to prevent identity fraud and crime.”
Reward is a global firm focused on on customer engagement technology, operating in more than 15 markets across Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and other regions.
Positioned at the intersection of banking and retail, Reward’s platform combines technology, data insights and digital marketing to deliver personalized propositions “that help brands deepen connections with customers.”
Beyond bridging the gap between consumer insight and commerce, Reward is on a mission to make everyday spending “more rewarding and every interaction count, delivering billions in rewards to customers.”
