CI has received comments and extensive Bitcoin-focused analysis. This has been provided to shed light on the current state of the BTC markets. These trading insights are from Dr. Sean Dawson, Head of Research at onchain options DeFi protocol, Derive ($79.8M TVL, $7.2B total trade volume).
Dawson noted that as the crypto and broader financial market dynamics shift post-election, Derive.xyz’s latest data shows it’s “unlikely we will see Bitcoin hitting $100K by December 1, with a 22.4% chance of this occurring at some point between now and then.”
However, he has also pointed out that there’s a “76.8% probability that BTC will reach $100K by January 1, 2025.” They also mentioned that the odds of BTC, the flagship cryptocurrency, maintaining or exceeding $100K by December 27 have “adjusted down to 40%, a slight dip from earlier this week, which is indicative of the market’s recent fluctuations.”
Dawson from Derive.xyz has also shared that they are seeing “a 17% chance of BTC surpassing $100K by December 1, and there’s a 44% likelihood by the end of January 2025, following a likely spike around Trump’s inauguration on January 20.”
He noted that when we are looking further out, the probabilities “stretch to a 4% chance of BTC exceeding $200K by late March and almost four-times more likely (14%) by late September.”
Dawson from Derive.xyz concluded:
“These insights highlight an intense focus on Bitcoin’s trajectory, particularly during pivotal economic events and changing macroeconomic conditions. Despite a recent pullback and subdued volatility, trading activity remains high, indicating sustained interest in Bitcoin’s market movements.”
As covered, Derive.xyz (TVL $79.8M, total trade volume $7.2B), is described as the decentralized protocol that creates “unique” as well as programmable onchain options, perpetuals, and structured products.
Co-founded by Nick Forster, Jake Fitzgerald, Mike Spain and Dom Romanowski, it aims to empower its users with easily “accessible automated strategies to build, grow, and preserve wealth.”
Earlier this week, CI also received commentary on the bitcoin price from Petr Kozyakov, Co-Founder and CEO at Mercuryo, a payment infrastructure platform in the digital token space.
Kozyakov shared earlier this week after BTC price retraced:
“A pullback in the bitcoin price to the $91,000 mark is unlikely to quell market euphoria. In fact, we may even see FOMO reach new heights as we stand on the eve of the festive season. The feel-good mood following the election of Republican Donald Trump as US president continues as the monumental milestone of $100,000 remains clearly in sight.”
They concluded:
“The digital token space is evolving on multiple fronts. The launch of bitcoin ETFs in the US earlier this year opened the door to greater institutional involvement with huge pent-up demand still untapped. Meanwhile, the success of meme coins has demonstrated the power of social media and its natural affiliation with crypto. The presence of major players from TradFi such as Mastercard in the Web3 space should also be noted. New payment products are enabling holders of digital assets to spend their tokens in a way that is both seamless and secure.”
