As investors revel in Bitcoin’s value surge, a trio of YouHodler executives warn the party could soon come to an end.
Co-founder and CEO Ilya Volkov expects a correction in 2025, with prices stabilizing between $60,000 and $65,000. Within that decline, there could be a longer-term silver lining emerging.
“However, broader financial instability and currency devaluations may catalyze the emergence of large-scale debt markets utilizing cryptocurrencies, including loans and bonds,” Volkov suggested. “This development could mark a turning point in the strategic adoption of blockchain technology, further integrating it into the global financial system.”
Risk manager Sergei Gorev thinks a correction may already be beginning. He said crypto quotes demonstrate volatile dynamics, adding large crypto traders prefer to fix long positions on the eve of the end of 2024.
“In a matter of days, Bitcoin soared by 50%,” Gorev said. “Since the beginning of the year, it has grown by 100%, and in two years, it has grown by as much as five times. Cryptocurrencies have often attracted round numbers. The recent capitalization of $2 trillion in BTC and the almost reached round figure of $100,000 for one BTC prove this.”
“However, the cryptocurrency market is ripe for a pretty good correction. It is still difficult to understand whether it has already begun or whether we are waiting for another entry above the price of $100,000. However, further, there will be a significant sobering up of the crowd’s sentiment, driving the quotes so high.”
Gorev believes that in the long term, the cryptocurrency market will be much higher. He compares BTC’s capitalization with gold’s. Gold’s current capitalization is about $15 trillion. BTC will likely occupy a part of the gold market value and displace it from the pedestal of a safe haven.
“However, it won’t be right away,” Gorev advised. “Gradually, with sometimes deep price corrections further.”
Chief of Markets Ruslan Lienkha said that Bitcoin recently tested the key psychological level of $100,000 and surged above $104,000. The ultimate peak remains speculative, primarily driven by the intensity of FOMO and overall market euphoria, suggesting potential price levels ranging between $110,000 and $150,000, contingent on the absence of external headwinds.
“However, sustaining prices below $100,000 would likely require significant market shifts, such as increased pessimism in equity markets, which is an improbable scenario,” Lienkha cautioned. “Instead, global equity markets are experiencing a robust Christmas rally, with new all-time highs recorded in the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Germany’s DAX index.”
“The ongoing equity rally is fuelled mainly by strong liquidity flows, which continue to support market valuations. We anticipate this upward momentum to persist through December, at least until the expiration of futures and options contracts on major U.S. exchanges. Bitcoin’s price movements, meanwhile, exhibit the strongest historical correlation with U.S. stock indices, suggesting that any downturn in equities could trigger a simultaneous correction in Bitcoin. This synchronized decline may occur early in the new year.”
Lienkha said retail sentiment continues to be the primary catalyst for price fluctuations within the cryptocurrency market. Evidence of an ongoing “alt-season” further supports this assertion, with heightened activity in altcoins and tokens unlinked to traditional financial instruments or ETFs. This indicates that retail investors, rather than institutional flows, are currently driving the market—a characteristic typical of the later stages of a bull run. Despite this exuberance, signs suggest investors may be approaching the final phase of this short-term cycle before significant correction, making future price action increasingly volatile and unpredictable.
Looking ahead to 2025, Lienkha suggests several risks could jeopardize Bitcoin’s bullish trajectory. Negative economic data from the U.S., coupled with a broader downturn in equity markets or escalating fears of a recession, could increase the likelihood of a Bitcoin selloff. He believes substantial market correction following this extraordinary rally appears inevitable, particularly given the heightened volatility that disproportionately impacts retail investors and those employing leveraged trading strategies.
“As the crypto market continues to evolve, the current price momentum serves as both an opportunity and a cautionary signal, emphasizing the importance of risk management in an environment defined by rapid price movements and speculative trading behavior,” Lienkha concluded.