U.S.-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) finally snapped an eight-day streak of net outflows on Friday (February 28, 2025), recording a modest $94 million in net inflows.
The slight turnaround was primarily driven by Ark and 21Shares’ ARKB fund, which pulled in $194 million, and Fidelity’s FBTC, which added $176 million.
However, these gains were tempered by significant outflows from BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest Bitcoin ETF by assets under management (AUM).
IBIT shed $244.5 million on Friday alone, capping a week of $1.175 billion in outflows—the fund’s worst performance yet, including a single-day record set on Wednesday.
Despite this, IBIT’s AUM remains over double that of FBTC, the second-largest fund – according to available data.
The broader picture is somewhat bearish for now: with Bitcoin’s price sliding, the total value of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs has slumped to $95 billion, down $20 billion from February 20, according to SoSoValue. The Fear and Greed Index, as tracked by Coinmarketcap, is also indicating “Fear” in the markets but some other data suggests the retail traders (and some newer and less experienced market participants) are panic-selling while many whales appear to be strategically accumulating at this time.
However, Bitcoin’s woes now seem to coincide with a turbulent market. In the past week, there has been a sharp sell-off in the US stock markets with tech stocks leading the downward trend (and many investors now selling their “Magnificent 7” allocations).
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, noted last week that while Bitcoin has held up better than many altcoins, it’s now ensnared in a Solana meme coin-driven selloff and a wider risk-off sentiment.
Upcoming U.S. economic data—labor market figures, inflation readings, consumer spending, and confidence metrics—due in early March 2025, could further sway its trajectory.
A softening labor market or persistent inflation might prompt a hawkish Federal Reserve response, potentially dragging Bitcoin below $50,000.
Conversely, signs of cooling inflation or robust consumer spending could bolster risk assets, pushing Bitcoin toward $60,000 by mid-March.
However, global uncertainty—amplified by U.S. tariffs, Russia-Ukraine tensions, and Israel conflicts—clouds the outlook.
Amid this volatility, gold has surged, with prices climbing 5% since mid-February, nearing $2,700 per ounce.
This appreciation underscores gold’s enduring status as a safe haven, a narrative Bitcoin has struggled to claim.
Proponents like Michael Saylor have long dubbed Bitcoin “digital gold,” yet its drop from its all-time high of around $109,000 —coupled with this week’s ETF outflows—suggests it’s more a speculative asset than a hedge against instability.
Based on extensive historical data, gold thrives in chaos; Bitcoin, it seems, falters.
The altcoin market’s steeper declines, with Solana and others shedding 30-40%, further erode the crypto sector’s safe-haven credentials.
However, it’s also worth noting that Bitcoin’s retreat from its peak and the altcoin slump mirror corrections in prior bull cycles—like 2017’s 30% dip or 2021’s mid-year pullback.
These shakeouts often purge excess speculation, setting the stage for healthier long-term growth.
The $94 million ETF inflow, though modest, hints at lingering institutional interest.
If historical patterns hold, this could be a textbook mid-cycle correction, with Bitcoin price potentially stabilizing around $80,000 to $95,000 before resuming its ascent later in 2025, assuming macroeconomic headwinds ease.
For now, Bitcoin’s price forecast hinges somewhat on the U.S. economic data drop.
Meanwhile, Gold’s performance remains un dimmed, while Bitcoin’s “digital gold” moniker looks increasingly shaky—though its resilience suggests it’s not out of the fight yet. It’s also worth having some perspective and considering that BTC price had fallen from $69,000 in late 2021 to around $16,000 and the catalyst for the previous crypto bear market was actually the start of the Russian-Ukraine conflict (a factor outside of the crypto ecosystem).
There are now many positive drivers such as the crypto-friendly Trump Administration but larger events such as the global reaction to tariffs and geopolitical conflicts tend to put more downward pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. But internal events such as the FTX collapse and ByBit hack recently also tend to put a lot of downward pressure on cryptocurrency prices. But in the long-term, a progressive regulatory framework along with real innovation and tech advancements will lay the groundwork for a more stable web3, blockchain and crypto ecosystem.