On March 3, 2025, Sweden’s central bank, Sveriges Riksbank, released its latest Business Survey titled “No Strong Wind in Our Sails,” revealing a somewhat disappointing state of the Swedish economy. But this is largely consistent across Europe and even across the globe due to growing political and economic policy uncertainty.
Conducted in February 2025, the survey aggregates detailed insights from interviews with major companies across major industry segments such as manufacturing, construction, retail trade, and select service sectors.
The research findings reveal a mostly stagnant economic landscape, with activity described as decisively weak across most industries and largely unchanged since the autumn 2024 survey.
While companies express cautious optimism for a marginal improvement within six months, a tangible recovery is expected to take longer, underscoring persistent challenges in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
The survey highlights a broad consensus among firms that overall economic conditions remain subdued.
In the grocery sector, sales growth holds steady, buoyed by essential demand, but durable goods and hospitality industries lag, reflecting consumer caution amid inflationary pressures.
Companies attribute this weakness to squeezed household purchasing power, with inflation eroding disposable income.
A respondent from the durable goods sector noted, “Consumers are holding off on big purchases,” a sentiment mostly shared across retail and discretionary spending categories.
Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector reports mixed outcomes: export-driven firms benefit from a weak krona, maintaining decent order books, but domestic-focused businesses struggle with tepid demand.
Looking ahead into the foreseeable future, firms do see a bit of hope but no immediate turnaround is anticipated (at least not based on current economic and political developments).
The survey notes a slight uptick in optimism for mid-2025, yet respondents stress that significant improvement depends on external factors like global demand and inflation trends.
Rising costs—particularly for energy, labor, and imported goods—continue to pressure profitability, though some sectors, like manufacturing, have seen cost increases moderate.
Pricing strategies vary significantly: retail plans further price hikes to offset declining margins, while manufacturers, facing less cost pressure, anticipate more restrained adjustments.
A retail representative remarked:
“Price increases depend on how demand holds up.”
This signals a delicate balancing act between passing costs to consumers and maintaining sales volumes.
Global uncertainties, notably potential U.S. import tariffs under the Trump administration, continue to loom large (not just in Sweden of course, but on a global level).
Most companies estimate a limited direct impact, with one respondent claiming:
“We’re not heavily exposed to the U.S. market.”
But uncertainty about tariff specifics complicates planning, as indirect effects—such as supply chain disruptions or shifts in global trade—could ripple through.
The survey, which was reportedly conducted before any concrete tariff policies emerged, underscores this unpredictability as a key risk.
Geopolitical tensions and supply chain fragility further cloud the current economic outlook, though firms remain cautiously adaptive in the current business environment.
The Riksbank’s survey, based on interviews with 42 companies employing around 250,000 people, offers a granular view of Sweden’s economic pulse.
Reportedly conducted via personal visits, phone calls, and web-based platforms from February 10-21, 2025, it reflects a cross-section of key industry perspectives.
While not forecasting considerable shifts, the report aligns with broader data suggesting Sweden’s economy is facing considerable obstacles at present.
For Sweden’s policymakers, it signals a need for more vigilance as inflation, global trade dynamics, and consumer confidence shape the path forward.
For now, Swedish firms navigate the business environment with “no strong wind,” dealing with various challenges with resilience but not much positive momentum.