Over his 30-plus years in business and venture capital, Tal Elyashiv has learned how to spot important trends, and he believes we’re in the early stages of a Quantum Revolution that will change the world. Elyashiv explains why in Investing in Revolutions, which is interesting reading for everyone from cultural history buffs to serious investors.
Folks see emerging technologies like AI and blockchain and mistakenly assume their ascent is inevitable. Through a thorough examination of past revolutions, Elyashiv details the numerous factors that must come together for a technological breakthrough to become truly transformational.
One certainty is that society is at the onset of a transformation period, which he believes will rival the Industrial Revolution’s impact. Combining decentralization, robotics, AI, and quantum computing ensures that impactful innovation is a certainty.
Far less certain, however, is the significance each factor will have. Elyashiv urges the reader to separate hype and potential from the probability of success. The most promising solutions can fail if they lack investment, distribution, and regulatory support.
While the current path is uncertain, Elyashiv said we’ve started the journey.
“We stand at the threshold of what may be humanity’s most transformative technological revolution,” he writes. “While the mechanical age gave us engines and machines, the electrical age powered our world, and the digital age connected us globally, the emerging Quantum Revolution promises something far more profound: the convergence of transformational technologies that will fundamentally reshape how we live, work, and interact with the world around us.”
The Quantum Revolution is Coming Faster
What is unique about this nascent revolution is its pace. New technologies are being introduced more frequently. Industries are adopting them more often as they seek competitive edges or to simply keep pace. The period between implementation and introduction has shrunk.
For investors, shorter periods make timing their investments even harder. When picking winners, old-fashioned research, risk tolerances, and diversification remain important. Most take these steps, but those who’ll be rewarded this time will identify key relationships that must occur if the Quantum Revolution is to fulfill its potential.
“Timing is everything,” he said. “AI has been around since the 60s, but it came into the fore because of OpenAI, which brought it to consumers.
“It’s evolving, but now, everybody knows about it. Does it mean that right now it’s in its prime? No, it’s still very bleeding-edge technology. It has a lot of limitations, and a lot of benefits.”
AI is Fine, But AI+Blockchain+Quantum+… is Even Better
AI’s influence is only beginning. What gets Elyashiv excited is its convergence with quantum computing, robotics and blockchain. Together, they create possibilities previously unimaginable. Add in the geopolitical effect of a pandemic and an election or two, and any number of use cases could ensue.
Will tariffs succeed in returning manufacturing jobs stateside, or will they foment the conditions for accelerated development of robotics? Easier to say that the current climate creates opportunities that wise minds will seek to exploit.
Those who time it right will be rewarded much faster than they were in the past. Elyashiv said the light bulb took 50 years to reach 50 million users. Telephones took just as long to reach two million.
Why Some Revolutions Catch on and Some Don’t
Why so long? Elyashiv said they needed grids to spread and businesses to adopt. What took the phone 50 years to accomplish, ChatGPT did in two months.
Legislative support is another crucial part of success. Until the current Trump presidency, governmental guidance for cryptocurrencies was minimal. It’s progressing, which sends encouraging signs to investors and entrepreneurs alike.
Governmental action is especially important as technologies evolve more quickly. Failure to act produces gaps that criminals will seek to exploit.
Take AI and fraud. Elyashiv said it allows the less sophisticated to create more sophisticated scams and could lead to the death of online verification.
“Is AI going to be good or bad in terms of fighting fraud?” Elyashiv asked. “I don’t know. It’s yet to be seen, and it all depends on how regulation will evolve.”
Social revolutions also bring opportunities. COVID-19 accelerated tech adoption, and looking ahead, environmental concerns will, too. Combine AI and quantum computing, and one envisions personalized medicine and analyzing weather patterns to determine where to build a house and how much to charge for catastrophe premiums.
Want a current example of how AI has changed things? Elyashiv cited internet searches.
“I use ChatGPT, and it gives me way more sophisticated answers than a Google search,” he said. “I’m asking different questions, and I’m using it differently than I did before.”
“It means that online marketing, the way we know it, is gone. This is not a decade from now, this is already happening. The intermediaries, the funny game that companies were playing with clicks that are not real, all this is gone.”