The cryptocurrency market is no stranger to volatility, and Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent pullback from its all-time high of $124,000 has sparked heated discussions.
Some market commentators and media outlets are quick to proclaim the end of the Bitcoin bull market, always (somewhat prematurely) questioning whether the crypto-asset’s rise was overhyped or unsustainable.
However, a closer look at the data suggests that this narrative is premature.
According to Anthony Pompliano, Founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management, the Bitcoin bull market is not only alive but poised for further gains.
Pompliano dismisses the current wave of fear and uncertainty as mere noise, pointing to Bitcoin’s strong performance metrics.
Despite the recent dip, Bitcoin is up 20% year-to-date and has nearly doubled in value over the past 12 months.
This growth stands in stark contrast to the pessimism circulating in some circles.
To assess whether the bull market is truly over, Pompliano references CoinGlass’s 30 Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators, a set of metrics used to identify market tops.
Strikingly, not a single one of these indicators has been triggered.
He notes:
“It’s hard for the bull market to be over if we haven’t hit any of the market peak indicators.”
Historical patterns also support the case for continued optimism. Investor Yannick Maurer highlights a recurring trend in Bitcoin’s bull market cycles.
In the bull runs of 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin typically saw gains in July and August, a pullback in September, and a strong rebound in October.
Maurer predicts a similar trajectory for 2025, with a potential 20-30% surge in October and early November following a September correction.
This seasonal “cool-off” aligns with Bitcoin’s current price action, suggesting that the recent drawdown is a normal part of the cycle rather than a signal of its end.
Analyst Frank Fetter adds further context, noting that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates the asset is currently oversold.
This technical indicator suggests that the market may be primed for a rebound.
Fetter’s dashboard of key metrics also shows neutral to cool readings across four critical indicators, reinforcing the view that Bitcoin remains in a healthy position for future price appreciation.
Bitcoin’s resilience is further underscored by on-chain analytics. Chris Kuiper of Fidelity points to a significant shift in Bitcoin’s ecosystem following the 2024 halving.
For the first time, the amount of Bitcoin held for over a decade—referred to as “ancient supply”—is growing faster than the rate of new coins mined.
Approximately 566 BTC are moving into long-term holding each day, compared to 450 new BTC issued daily.
This trend reflects strong conviction among long-term holders, who are increasingly unwilling to part with their assets.
As Bitcoin matures, its market dynamics are evolving.
Pompliano argues that the asset is reaching a market cap and level of investor education where capital allocators can prudently include it in their portfolios.
This growing acceptance is likely to reduce volatility over time, a stark contrast to earlier bull markets that saw multiple 30% drawdowns.
Today, Bitcoin experiences more modest 5-15% corrections, which serve to clear out leverage and set the stage for the next upward move.
Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Pompliano emphasized that the current market choppiness is a small price to pay for an asset with a 10-year compound annual growth rate exceeding 85%.
He remains confident that Bitcoin is simply undergoing its seasonal cooling period before embarking on the final leg of this bull market.
For investors willing to weather the short-term fluctuations, the potential rewards in October and November could be significant.
Far from signaling the end, the current digital assets market dynamics point to a Bitcoin bull market that still potentially has room to run.