The US deal market is said to now be headed into significant acceleration in the year ahead, reportedly led by relatively high-value, transformative transactions, according to the EY-Parthenon October 2025 Deal Barometer. The forecast from EY-Parthenon practice now anticipates continued deal volume growth in corporate as well as private equity dealmaking through the year 2026, further extending the ongoing rebound that that began in 2024.
The Deal Barometer forecasts that the number of corporate M&A deals will increase 3% in the coming year, after an expected 10% advance in 2025. PE deal volume is on track to increase 5% in 2026, after a significant 8% increase in the past year. This seemingly sustained level of activity and increased share of large deals are set to translate into stronger growth in overall deal value.
Mitch Berlin, EY Americas Vice Chair, EY-Parthenon said that “dealmakers are now leaning into more transformative growth strategies, supported by resilient balance sheets as well as gradually improving financing conditions.
Berlin added that the winning CEOs are no longer just waiting for greater stability. They are moving with confidence in order to “acquire capabilities, specifically AI and next-gen tech, that are rewiring businesses for resilience and driving portfolio transformation.”
Following a somewhat sluggish start to deal activity this year constrained by policy uncertainty, there was a “reacceleration” in the Q3.
YTD, US deal volume surged 9% when compared with 2024, “as favorable credit conditions, rising valuations and growing CEO confidence drove momentum ahead of 2026.”
Deal value also has climbed up — “36% over 2024 — owing to a strong uptick in larger deals.”
The share of transactions topping $1 billion presently accounts “for 27% of deal activity in the first three quarters of 2025, up from a 22% average between 2016 and 2019, before the pandemic.”
Technology, financial services and life sciences are said to be the most active sectors “driving big-ticket deals, driven by an unwavering push to acquire AI-enabled capabilities and future-proof portfolios.”
US corporate dealmaking activity is up “10% in 2025, with deal value rising 23%, reflecting sustained momentum and a positive outlook.”
The Deal Barometer projects that corporate M&A volume will conclude 2025 about “10% above last year and experience 3% growth in 2026.”
This expansion underscores a constructive environment for deals, supported by resilient “corporate balance sheets and easing financial conditions.”
Through the month of September 2025, deal volume surged 8% compared with 2024, and deal value “surged 60%, driven by a notable increase in larger transactions and steady capital deployment amid improving financing conditions.”
Looking ahead, the Deal Barometer projects PE deal volume “to conclude 2025 up 8% relative to the prior year, followed by a 5% gain in 2026.”
One key signal of rising activity is the easing of “valuation mismatches — noted as the biggest barrier to dealmaking in previous years.”
According to the EY Private Equity Pulse Q3 2025 report, “two-thirds of respondents report that the valuation gap has narrowed.”
This growing flexibility is helping buyers and sellers “find common ground and move forward with greater confidence.”
Despite elevated policy uncertainty, the macroeconomic backdrop remains broadly “supportive” of dealmaking.
Overall, the US economic outlook remains “measured.”
The EY-Parthenon economic outlook projects US real GDP growth “of 2% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, with the unemployment rate expected to drift higher toward 4.8% as labor demand cools.”
Inflation is expected to peak around 3.2% just prior to easing to 2.3% by year-end 2026.
Although policy uncertainty and market volatility remain, resilient GDP growth and the Federal Reserve’s signal for further rate cuts are said to be “easing financing conditions and encouraging strategic activity into 2026.”
CEOs should be ready to plan and aim for longer timelines, model scenarios of impacts to tariffs and labor force costs, and “structure agreements to share risks more effectively.” These actions can help maintain “certainty in deals and accelerate the closing process.”
The EY-Parthenon Deal Barometer is a forecasting tool that reportedly integrates the EY Macroeconomics US economic outlook with real-time transaction data in order “to project future trends in corporate M&A and private equity deal activity for US deals over $100 million.”
The framework indicates an 82% correlation between private equity deal activity and various economic metrics, offering business execs with “an objective outlook for deal volume in the coming quarters.”