Are prediction markets gambling or investing/trading? Well, some believe stock markets are more akin to gambling than to investing, yet public markets are subject to federal oversight – not state control like gambling.
Kalshi, a top prediction marketplace, has issued a statement today pushing back against certain states seeking to regulate its platform under local gaming commissions. Kalshi says that is not what consumers want or need.
In a commissioned survey, Kalshi claims that 89% of those polled agree with the statement “Even if I don’t participate in these types of markets, I believe all Americans should have access and the option to decide for themselves.”
And;
70% of survey respondents believe Americans should be able to invest in specific outcomes, such as election outcomes or agricultural futures.
The survey is said to have solid bipartisan support, with 75% of Republicans and 71% of Democrats supporting a federal approach.
Kalshi says that currently, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is where they are regulated, and that’s where the regulation should remain.
Surveyed individuals prefer by 79% that “Federal Government Regulators” should have jurisdiction over these activities rather than “State Gaming Commissions” at 21%.
Sara Slane, Kalshi’s Head of Corporate Development, points to a slapdash, fragmented approach if the states take over.
“American voters want the freedom to choose how to invest their own money without state-level bureaucrats interfering. The current federal regulatory structure is best equipped to oversee this financial activity, not an unpredictable state regulatory patchwork. Kalshi supports this vision — every American, no matter where they live, should be able to make financial decisions for themselves without state casino regulators getting in the way.”
Kalshi asked Axis Research to produce the survey, which queried 1,219 voters nationwide from September 18-23, 2025, with a proportionate distribution across gender, age, ethnicity, and political affiliation variables.
In the end, politics will win, and if more votes can be gained than lost, the Feds will continue oversight of prediction marketplaces, which are now merging with more traditional investment platforms.