YouHodler’s chief of markets, Ruslan Lienkha, believes macro factors have been a significant factor in Bitcoin and crypto markets of late. He also shares his predictions for 2026.
Are we seeing more macro-driven pressure (rates, inflation data, liquidity) or crypto-native factors (ETF flows, miner behavior, leverage washouts)?
“From my perspective, macro-driven factors have been the primary source of market pressure recently. Broadly, across asset classes, risk sentiment has weakened.
“In the U.S., equity markets have already been under notable strain, with headline indices masking the underlying softness in the broader market. Most of the upward momentum in major indices has been concentrated in a very narrow group of AI-related mega-cap stocks. At the same time, the majority of equities have shown signs of fatigue.
“This dynamic suggests we may be approaching the late stages of the current growth cycle. As uncertainty around interest rates, inflation dynamics, and liquidity conditions increases, a growing share of investors is choosing to lock in profits and move to the sidelines. A clear illustration of this risk-averse stance can be seen in Berkshire Hathaway’s behavior, as the company significantly reduced its investment activity over the past year- an approach often viewed as indicative of ‘smart money’ positioning.”
How do you expect Bitcoin to trade in the short term? Are we in a typical consolidation phase or something more structural?
“In the short term, Bitcoin’s price action is still heavily influenced by broader macro conditions, particularly the performance of the U.S. equity market. Despite its higher volatility and unique market structure, BTC continues to exhibit a meaningful correlation with major stock indices.
“At the moment, equities are undergoing a corrective phase, but importantly, they remain within a longer-term upward trend. From a technical standpoint, this leaves room for indices to stabilize and potentially resume another leg higher. Should this occur, it would likely support Bitcoin and help prevent the current consolidation from turning into something more severe.
“However, the risk scenario cannot be dismissed. If U.S. stock indices begin to show clear signs of a sustained trend reversal rather than a routine correction, Bitcoin could face significantly stronger downside pressure. In such a case, the current consolidation could evolve into a more profound structural decline, with BTC potentially retracing to much lower levels.
“Overall, the short-term outlook depends primarily on whether the equity market confirms a continuation of the broader bullish trend or transitions into a more prolonged downturn.”
As we approach the end of the year, how do you expect market conditions to evolve in the next 2-6 weeks?
“As we approach year-end, market conditions appear increasingly fragile. Several indicators suggest that the multi-year upward cycle in risk assets may be nearing exhaustion. Against this backdrop, the current correction or every following one in major equity indices could represent more than just short-term volatility- it may be an early signal of a broader trend reversal.
“Over the next two to six weeks, I expect market sentiment to remain cautious, with a growing likelihood that equities enter a more sustained bearish phase. This does not necessarily imply a continuous or disorderly decline. Periodic rebounds are likely, particularly in high-beta assets such as Bitcoin, which could revisit the 110K area or even briefly exceed it. However, such moves would more likely represent corrective bounces within an emerging downward trend rather than the start of a renewed bull cycle.
“Overall, the balance of risks is shifting to the downside, and markets may increasingly trade as if the long-lasting expansion phase is coming to an end.”
How do you interpret the current market sentiment among retail vs. institutional investors?
“Current market sentiment shows a clear divergence between institutional and retail participants. As noted earlier, institutional investors, often referred to as ‘smart money’, tend to realize profits and reduce exposure during periods of relative calm, well before volatility accelerates. Their behavior is typically more measured and strategic, and many large players have either already trimmed their Bitcoin positions or are holding long-term allocations with little concern for short-term fluctuations.
“Retail sentiment, by contrast, becomes significantly more reactive when volatility rises. Sharp price declines tend to trigger emotional decision-making, leading to higher trading activity and, in many cases, capitulation. This dynamic also extends to corporates that hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets but lack financial-industry expertise; in practice, they behave more like retail investors than institutions when navigating market stress.
“At this stage, institutional investors appear largely stable or sidelined, while retail participants are exhibiting heightened fear and uncertainty. As a result, much of the current market activity and the sentiment driving it is predominantly retail-driven.”
Which macro trends could shape Bitcoin’s trajectory next year?
“Among the key macro trends likely to influence Bitcoin’s trajectory next year, U.S. interest rate policy and incoming economic data remain the most decisive. The Federal Reserve’s path, whether it leans toward further tightening or begins a gradual easing cycle, will directly shape liquidity conditions and overall risk appetite.
“Since the U.S. equity market remains the primary benchmark for global risk assets, its performance will inevitably spill over into crypto. If economic indicators point to slowing growth, persistent inflation, or a prolonged period of restrictive rates, equity markets may struggle, and Bitcoin could face additional headwinds. At the same time, improvements in liquidity conditions or clearer signals of rate cuts without economic weakness or recession would likely support both equities and digital assets.”