Forge’s Investment Outlook for Q1 2026 shows that while AI had a dominant influence on markets, fintech had its moments, too.
Mid- and late-stage companies generated momentum in 2025 by garnering $154.9 billion, more than double 2024’s $75.5 billion. AI companies hoovered up the raises, with OpenAI drawing $40 billion and Anthropic attracting $16.7 billion. A similar level of capital was raised in 2021, but four years ago, it took 1,159 companies; in 2025, only 638.
“Driven by large-scale capital raises from companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic and Databricks — each of which reached unprecedented private-market valuations, the AI Basket appreciated 191.3% for the year, surpassing Aerospace & Defense (+141.6 %) and Fintech (+10 4 .6 %),” the report states. “While both AI and Aerospace & Defense delivered gains consistently throughout 2025, Fintech performance was front-loaded, with the majority of appreciation occurring in the first half of the year and only a modest 5.2% gain in the second half.”
Unsurprisingly, trading activity mirrored this, with AI companies representing 45% of trading volume. That doesn’t mean that non-AI companies suffered. According to the Forge Private Market Index, 71% of non-AI firms rose during the year; 78% of AI companies did. Non-AI companies generated 40.8% returns, just under half of the 80.2% seen by AI companies.
Fintechs posting strong showings included prediction market platform Polymarket, corporate expense management platform Ramp, and blockchain payments firm Rippling. All recorded Forge Price increases north of 100%.
At 16%, the Forge Accuity Private Market Index easily beat the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100, thanks to heavy hitters Anduril (46%), Anthropic (68%), and SpaceX (76%).
Four of Forge’s theme baskets delivered positive returns in 4Q25. The two laggards were Cybersecurity (-15.1%) and Fintech (-0.4%). They were hurt by Kraken (-14.1%), Chainalysis (-25.6% and Netskope (-4.6%)
The Unicorn Club admitted 39 members last quarter, the largest quarterly total in three years. Eight topped $2 billion, and 27 more than doubled.
Several fintech exits were completed and announced in the fourth quarter, including Wealthfront ($1.4 billion), Teamshares ($825.2 billion), and Kraken ($20 billion).