Crypto takes center stage in this week’s edition of Web3 Thoughts of the Week. Market manipulation, stablecoins, altcoins, Bitcoin and more are included.
Bitcoin and contagion
“Digital asset treasuries (DATs) are beginning to show signs of stress from the sharp sell-off in Bitcoin, which is affecting their share prices. Among the worst-hit is Nakamoto Inc, whose shares are down 99.32% over the last 280 days, as it sits on $270 million in unrealized losses. Nakamoto bought 5,398 BTC at around $118,000, close to Bitcoin’s cycle top.
“Overall, Bitcoin treasury companies have just logged three straight weeks of selling – the first such streak in their admittedly short history. As contagion increases, we could see further corporate selling in the weeks to come, pushing the price of Bitcoin toward its bear market low. We may also begin to see consolidation in this market segment as some firms struggle to survive.
“Few DATs have the balance sheet strength and stamina to withstand a long Bitcoin downturn the way Strategy Inc. (MSTR) can. Cascading liquidations can exacerbate this. However, even a much bigger drawdown from here would be healthy for the overall structure of the market. It would reset the leverage and remove speculative holders.
“With Bitcoin and ETH continuing to slide, crypto hedge funds have retreated to cash. Their average cash levels are currently 15.32%, the highest in almost a year. This is exactly the kind of uncertain macro environment in which cash can be king – especially for investors whose mandate doesn’t allow them to rotate into less volatile sectors.”
– Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau
“Bitcoin finds itself in a unique position inside this conversation. On one hand, it still trades with liquidity cycles and broader risk appetite. On the other, its narrative as a neutral, non-sovereign reserve asset strengthens every time debt sustainability becomes part of mainstream discussion.
“If the global system is slowly decentralizing — from trade to settlement to capital flows — Bitcoin fits that arc structurally. However, Bitcoin’s struggle to find acceptance as a safe haven alongside gold and silver have put a dent in overall sentiment.
“Price action reflects this lack of confidence and uncertainty, with Bitcoin remaining rangebound in the mid-$60,000 level.
“In a recent interview, Michael Saylor was confronted with the fact that Bitcoin has at times fallen more than 50% and recently dipped below MicroStrategy’s average acquisition cost. The implication was clear: would the company have been better off buying gold?
“Saylor appeared visibly stressed but reiterated the long-term thesis. He emphasized that MicroStrategy’s debt structure does not require refinancing unless Bitcoin were to collapse toward roughly $8,000 — a level far below current pricing. In other words, the strategy is built to withstand volatility, but does create an opportunity for deep risk exposure.
“Markets spent the week digesting something far more consequential than routine economic data: the public acknowledgment that the post-World War II global order is fracturing. Ray Dalio’s declaration that the rules-based system has officially broken down reframed the macro conversation from cyclical slowdown to structural transition. Gold and silver, though currently consolidating, remain elevated after historic rallies that signaled growing concern about monetary stability. Equities are holding up, but narrowing breadth and persistent volatility suggest investors are reassessing risk in a world where debt burdens, geopolitical tension, and power rivalries are intensifying.
“Within crypto, Bitcoin remains caught between identities — trading like a risk asset while aspiring to safe-haven status. Its rangebound price action near the mid-$60,000s reflects that uncertainty. Meanwhile, altcoins sit at technically fragile levels, with many pressing against critical Ichimoku support that could define the next major trend.
“Adding to the tension, Saylor faced pointed questions about MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy as price dipped below its average cost basis, highlighting both conviction and concentrated risk. Altogether, markets are not in panic — but they are leaning defensive, waiting to see how this structural shift ultimately resolves.”
– Tony Severino, market analyst, YouHodler
Altcoins
“Altcoins are in a far more fragile position. While Bitcoin compresses, many major altcoins are sitting at technically critical levels. On higher timeframes, price is pressing against the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud — a critical structural and a possible last line of defense.
A decisive breakdown below the cloud would not just be another pullback. It would represent a structural trend shift. Liquidity conditions are not yet expanding. Speculative appetite remains muted. Ethereum and other large-cap Layer-1 assets continue to struggle with relative weakness versus Bitcoin. Meanwhile, higher-beta altcoins are showing signs of exhaustion rather than accumulation. This is a pivotal moment.
“Either Bitcoin resolves higher and drags the complex with it — restoring risk appetite — or altcoins confirm a broader structural deterioration that suggests crypto has not yet completed its macro reset.”
– Severino
Stablecoins
“As banks and crypto exchanges still argue over stablecoin yields, a different battle is playing out in the payments space. (Recently) Meta announced it’s exploring the integration of stablecoins into Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, while Stripe has expressed an interest in acquiring PayPal.
“These moves reveal the real value of stablecoins – and the real threat they pose to incumbent providers. For the first time since digital payments became possible, stablecoins are facilitating a new shift in the balance of power: away from the current infrastructure gatekeepers and into the hands of consumer-facing businesses.
“Stablecoins move control from infrastructure businesses to those who control the wallets. That’s the real reason PayPal is an interesting investment proposition – it provides the distribution layer that Stripe is lacking. And I expect to see more similar deals and developments as other businesses realize this dynamic.
“By embedding stablecoins into their offerings, consumer apps can become the new superapps, one-stop shops that offer everything within one interface. It’s a sort of rebundling of financial services, and that’s the real competition traditional financial players face amid the rise of stablecoins.”
– Puckrin
Jane Street and crypto market manipulation
“The Jane Street scandal is all over the news, and there is a great deal of speculation about the impact of their so-called ‘10am algo’ on the Bitcoin price. We’ve seen one bounce in crypto prices, and suddenly, Crypto Twitter is convinced the bull market is back. This is a dangerous assumption.
“It’s understandable that investors with strong conviction in Bitcoin are looking for a villain during a major downturn. But the reality of Bitcoin market dynamics is much more nuanced. Regardless of whether market manipulation has taken place, Bitcoin’s price isn’t driven by just one firm, no matter how influential. It isn’t a memecoin.
“If we look at the macro environment, there’s ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over tighter global liquidity. AI jitters are also affecting the tech sector, which has historically been highly correlated with Bitcoin. These reasons alone are enough to explain why crypto is in a bear market right now.
“Only data can confirm if we have already seen Bitcoin’s bear market low. So far, there has been one single day of major upward movement. This would have to turn into a sustained pattern, with Bitcoin reclaiming the $74,000 threshold and steadily moving higher for weeks. Only then can a conclusion be made with any certainty that a structural recovery has begun. Outside of data, everything else is just noise.”
– Puckrin
AI honeymoon is over
“For the remainder of this year at least, this sets the tone: exceptional growth is expected, not rewarded.
“Investors are no longer going to buy exposure to AI at any price. They’re demanding evidence of sustained profitability, operating discipline, and visibility on returns. Revenue growth alone is insufficient when expectations are already stretched.”
“Premium multiples demand premium predictability. Nvidia has delivered extraordinary performance. Now it must deliver consistency at scale. That’s a far higher bar.
“A more selective market will begin distinguishing between companies with demonstrable earnings conversion and those relying primarily on narrative momentum. For the remainder of the year, dispersion within AI equities is likely to widen. Infrastructure leaders with clear cash flow generation may hold their ground.
“Application-layer businesses that have yet to prove monetization could face sharper volatility. Markets are transitioning from thematic allocation to forensic analysis.
“Investors want line-of-sight on earnings durability and balance sheet strength. They’re evaluating AI companies as mature cash-generating enterprises, not early-stage disruptors.
“The AI revolution is intact as Nvidia’s $78 billion outlook shows. However, the muted reaction shows that markets feel AI must now prove margins, not only momentum.
“The second half of the year in the AI sector will reward discipline, transparency, and profitability.”
– Nigel Green, CEO, deVere Group