The bombs have only just begun to fly in the conflict between the US/Israel and the authoritarian regime controlling Iran. Launched late Saturday, the military action was revealed via social media by President Trump. Soon it was revealed that many members of the Iranian regime’s leadership had died in the attack, including the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In response, Iran has launched missiles and drones against the US forces in the region, but has also targeted nearby countries like the UAE.
While the dictatorship’s leadership was diminished, others have stepped in to fill the void. Trump has said the attack will take as long as necessary to ensure Iran never gets a nuclear weapon, while telling the population that now is their chance to overthrow the detested regime.
While leaders globally voice their support or denounce the military action, conventional wisdom holds that a quick (i.e., weeks) resolution will be popular with the US electorate, and an elongated, drawn-out conflict will see support diminish over time.
A visit to the prediction market Polymarket suggests confidence that a shortened conflict is unlikely. The possibility of “Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?” indicates only a 36% chance of this occurring. A downfall by March 31st holds only a 17% chance, and one taking place by the end of the year (December 31) holds only a 47% probability.
On other Iran-affiliated bets:
- A US Iran Ceasefire by March 31st has a 51% chance, but by June 30th, the probability jumps to 77%
- Will US forces, boots on the ground, enter Iran by March 31st? This indicates a 26% probability
- Trump announces the end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? The probability is 63%.
On another note, there is a 100% chance that Khamenei would be out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28. Before his death was announced, the probability of this event stood at around 1.9%. The crowd does not always get it right.
