Chainalysis has shared that a fresh analysis of blockchain data shows a dramatic rise in cryptocurrency transfers leaving Iranian exchanges in the immediate aftermath of joint US-Israeli airstrikes on February 28, 2026. Between that date and March 2, roughly $10.3 million in digital assets flowed out of major local platforms, highlighting how geopolitical tensions continue to drive crypto activity in the sanctioned nation.
Chainalysis also indicated that the surge was particularly pronounced in the first hours after news of the strikes broke.
Hourly outflow volumes spiked as high as 873 percent above the average seen so far in 2026, with some periods approaching or exceeding $2 million in transfers.
While outflows had been building gradually in the days leading up to the strikes—likely fueled by rising tensions—the real acceleration came once the attacks were underway.
This pattern mirrors earlier episodes, including the 2024 Kerman bombings and multiple direct confrontations with Israel throughout 2024 and 2025, when similar spikes accompanied economic turmoil.
Iran’s broader crypto landscape remains substantial despite heavy international restrictions.
The country’s ecosystem was valued at approximately $7.8 billion in trading and on-chain activity throughout 2025.
Much of this usage stems from the collapsing value of the Iranian rial, persistent high inflation, and long-standing sanctions that limit traditional banking options.
Citizens and institutions alike have turned to digital assets as a practical workaround for value storage and cross-border movement.
Analysts point to three main possibilities for the latest wave of transfers. First, ordinary Iranians may be shifting funds into self-custodial wallets to safeguard savings amid uncertainty and potential crackdowns.
Second, domestic exchanges could be relocating assets to fresh wallets as a way to obscure their activities on public blockchains and reduce exposure to sanctions-related risks.
Third, state-linked actors or entities tied to groups like the IRGC might be using the moment to move funds for trade, proxy support, or other operations that rely on crypto rails.
Distinguishing between these scenarios remains challenging in the short term.
A significant portion of the $10.3 million headed to overseas mainstream exchanges, other Iranian platforms, or unidentified “other wallets”—categories that could reflect personal holdings, internal reshuffling, or controlled infrastructure.
Adding complexity, Iranian authorities have a history of imposing internet blackouts during periods of unrest, as seen in January 2026 protests.
Such restrictions temporarily halted retail activity while allowing more sophisticated users to continue operating.
The findings also come against the backdrop of recent vulnerabilities.
Iran’s largest exchange, Nobitex, suffered a major hack in 2025 that resulted in over $90 million in losses, underscoring the operational dangers platforms face in this environment.
Overall, the post-strike outflow reinforces a consistent trend: cryptocurrency functions as a pressure-release valve for Iran whenever conflict or domestic instability intensifies.
While the immediate $10.3 million movement is modest relative to the national ecosystem, it signals how quickly on-chain flows can respond to breaking events. Chainalysis concluded that as more data emerges on where these funds travel next, clearer distinctions between citizen hedging, exchange risk management, and state activity should become possible.