PitchBook’s latest research report on the current state of private capital markets paints a somewhat measured picture of the private capital industry’s next five years. PitchBook further noted in the research report that global assets under management are projected to expand from $20.3 trillion at the end of 2025 to $26.7 trillion by 2030 under the central scenario.
According to the latest update from PitchBook, that pace reflects a 5.7 percent compound annual growth rate—noticeably slower than the rapid expansion seen in the low-interest-rate era—as higher borrowing costs, geopolitical friction, and a maturing market shift the focus toward operational improvements and disciplined capital deployment rather than financial leverage.
Evergreen vehicles stand out as the clearest growth engine. These perpetual structures are expected to swell from $3.2 trillion to $5.2 trillion, posting a robust 10.2 percent annual clip.
Insurance capital and wealth management channels are the primary fuel, helping evergreen funds account for nearly one-fifth of total private-market AUM by decade’s end. In contrast, traditional drawdown funds will continue to dominate but expand more modestly.
Private equity remains the largest single category, forecasted to reach $8.8 trillion (5.2 percent CAGR).
Buyouts will still comprise the bulk, supported by a 2025 rebound in deal flow and megadeal activity.
Yet lingering distribution bottlenecks—thousands of aging portfolio companies and subdued exit proceeds—will keep fundraising constrained.
Venture capital faces an even more cautious outlook, inching only to $3.9 trillion at a 1.3 percent CAGR.
Its fate is tightly linked to artificial-intelligence outcomes: 65 percent of 2025 US venture deal value flowed to AI-related transactions, creating a stark divide between winners and the rest of the market.
Probabilistic modeling shows wide bands, with downside risk to $2.8 trillion if AI enthusiasm cools.
Private debt is poised for stronger gains, climbing to $5.6 trillion (roughly 7.9 percent CAGR overall).
Insurance platforms are central here, already managing $1.4 trillion across leading firms and set to drive evergreen credit growth above 9 percent annually.
Real assets also shine, surging to $3.7 trillion (11.3 percent CAGR) on demand for data centers, energy-transition infrastructure, and supply-chain resilience.
Real estate, however, is the notable laggard, projected to hover near $2.0 trillion with essentially flat growth as office and multifamily sectors grapple with higher rates and weak capital recycling.
Regionally, North America leads the charge, expanding from $12.4 trillion to $17.6 trillion on the back of deep institutional and retail investor bases.
Europe should advance steadily to $5.5 trillion amid infrastructure and credit fundraising tailwinds.
Asia, by contrast, is the outlier: AUM is expected to dip slightly to $2.9 trillion as China-related tensions weigh on capital flows.
PitchBook’s forecasts rely on Monte Carlo simulations that incorporate historical cash-flow patterns, dry-powder trends, and uncertainty around returns.
The central case sits between a pessimistic $21 trillion scenario (macro shocks and stalled exits) and an optimistic $34 trillion path (sustained AI momentum and liquidity recovery).
The research report from PitchBook signals a maturing industry where success will hinge less on cheap capital and more on specialized capabilities—evergreen product design, insurance partnerships, thematic infrastructure plays, and genuine operational alpha. Managers and allocators that adapt to these structural shifts will be best positioned to capture the next chapter of private market growth.