A recent analysis from CoinGecko highlights a significant reversal in fortunes for participants on Pump.fun, the Solana-based platform for memecoin launches. For much of 2024 and 2025, the majority of traders who closed positions on the platform ended their months in the red. Yet data through April 2026 shows a clear shift: profitable traders now dominate, suggesting that a more disciplined group of participants has returned to the fray.
The research report from CoinGecko tracks realized profits and losses among wallets that bought and sold tokens on Pump.fun (and its associated PumpSwap).
From April 2024 onward, the share of profitable traders hovered below 50 percent in most months and plunged as low as 30.1 percent in June 2025.
Losses were the norm as the broader retail crowd piled into high-risk memecoins during the 2025 hype cycle.
By late 2025, however, monthly active wallets had fallen sharply from a peak of 5.2 million in May 2025 to just 1.8 million in December 2025. This exodus appears to have cleared the field.
The turnaround began in February 2026, when 56.8 percent of traders recorded gains.
The upward trend accelerated: 70.0 percent were profitable in March and 73.3 percent in April. In April 2026 alone, roughly 2.05 million wallets (65.1 percent of the profitable group) earned between $1 and $500.
Another 87,000 wallets (2.8 percent) made $500 to $1,000, while 169,000 wallets (5.4 percent) pocketed more than $1,000.
Losses followed a similar small-stakes pattern: 793,000 wallets (25.2 percent) lost $1–$500, with only tiny fractions experiencing heavier hits above $500.
These modest profit tiers reflect the typical low-capital, high-frequency trading style on memecoin platforms. Most participants risk small amounts on multiple tokens rather than making large bets on single launches.
The research study’s methodology focuses exclusively on realized PnL—actual buy-and-sell outcomes—netted across all tokens at the wallet level.
It does not include unrealized “bagholder” losses, nor does it filter out bots or wash trading, which could slightly inflate wallet counts.
USD valuations rely on on-chain pricing data that can sometimes be imprecise for thinly traded tokens.
Earlier months from Pump.fun’s January 2024 launch were omitted because activity was negligible at the start.
CoinGecko researchers note that while they cannot pinpoint the exact cause of the profitability surge, the pattern aligns with a natural market cleansing.
As less experienced or undercapitalized traders exited amid 2025’s cooling phase, a leaner, potentially more experienced cohort re-entered in 2026.
This selective return has tilted the overall profitability distribution in favor of those who remain.
The full dataset, including monthly breakdowns from April 2024 to April 2026, is available on Dune Analytics for further examination.
The report underscores that memecoin trading remains a high-risk arena, but current conditions appear to reward those who approach it with greater selectivity and timing. Whether this recovery sustains or proves temporary will depend on broader market sentiment and new token inflows in the months ahead.