Bitcoin has delivered notable gains in recent weeks, surging approximately 37% from early April levels and reaching a three-month peak of over $80,000 and briefly going above the $82,000 mark. However, on-chain analytics provider CryptoQuant maintains that this advance qualifies as a temporary rebound within a broader bear market, not the beginning of a new bullish phase. The firm’s assessment warns that investor selling to secure gains is gaining momentum and could pick up additional steam if prices hold steady or edge modestly higher.
Analysts at CryptoQuant highlight several on-chain indicators reflecting real participant behavior. Short-term holders have moved firmly into profitable territory.
Their Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has climbed to 1.016 and stayed consistently above the neutral 1.0 mark since mid-April.
This pattern shows that investors who entered during the prior decline are now regularly exiting positions with returns when opportunities arise.
On May 4, daily realized profits jumped to 14,600 BTC—the largest single-day total since December 10, 2025. Over the past 30 days, net realized profits across the market have flipped positive for the first time in over four months, totaling around 20,000 BTC.
Unrealized profit margins also stand out. Market participants currently hold average paper gains near 18%, the highest level recorded since June 2025.
Historical patterns suggest that such elevated unrealized returns often encourage greater distribution activity as holders look to convert potential profits into actual ones before sentiment shifts.
CryptoQuant frames the current bitcoin price action as a classic bear-market rally.
These temporary recoveries frequently attract sidelined money and encourage early exits, only for underlying downward pressure to resume once buying interest wanes.
Recent exchange deposit trends appear to support this view, with some larger inflows indicating calculated positioning by seasoned participants rather than widespread retail buying.
The report emphasizes that on-chain data provides deeper insight than price charts alone. While surface-level advances spark enthusiasm, the metrics reveal quietly rising supply at prevailing levels.
Should Bitcoin consolidate around recent highs or attempt further upside, the motivation for additional profit-taking is expected to strengthen, creating potential resistance and raising the likelihood of a short-term reversal.For investors, the message encourages prudence.
Strong performance can mask growing distribution risks, particularly when unrealized gains reach thresholds that have previously triggered larger sell waves. While CryptoQuant does not rule out near-term continuation, it stresses that any further progress would face mounting seller pressure.
Overall, Bitcoin’s recent spring rally has offered some returns, but underlying data indicate the market remains entrenched in bear-phase dynamics. As profit realization builds, close monitoring of realized-profit metrics will prove more telling than the Bitcoin price action by itself.