EY has noted that despite persistent geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainties, fluctuating interest rates, and supply chain disruptions, US mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity for deals exceeding $100 million is projected to expand by 8% in deal volume during 2026.
This outlook, from EY-Parthenon’s Deal Barometer—a tool blending real-time transaction data with macroeconomic modeling—highlights corporate strategists’ determination to leverage M&A for digital transformation, particularly in AI capabilities, while bolstering competitive positioning.
Corporate buyers are expected to drive much of this momentum, with an anticipated 11% rise in deal volume (potentially reaching 13% in optimistic scenarios or dipping to 5% if conditions worsen).
This contrasts sharply with private equity (PE) activity, which is forecasted to hold steady amid greater selectivity. Early 2026 data already shows corporate M&A surging 22% year-over-year in Q1, while PE volume declined 11%.
CEOs are turning to large-scale strategic transactions to “rewire” their organizations.
According to EY-Parthenon’s Growth Survey, 73% of leaders report that external pressures have reshaped their strategies, prompting a focus on resilience.
Separately, the EY-Parthenon CEO Outlook indicates that 65% of US CEOs are using M&A to gain technology, talent, and operational edges, with 46% eyeing divestitures to streamline operations and free up capital.
This aligns with broader industry trends. PwC‘s global M&A outlook notes a K-shaped recovery favoring US-led, technology-heavy megadeals, with deal values rising sharply due to AI investments.
Bain & Company‘s 2026 M&A Report echoes this, pointing to technology disruption, post-globalization shifts, and evolving profit pools as key drivers, with 80% of executives expecting sustained or increased activity.
Deal value often outpaces volume growth as companies pursue transformative assets.
Strong corporate balance sheets, stabilizing financing, and a supportive regulatory environment further fuel optimism.
Sectors like technology, healthcare, energy, and infrastructure stand out, where AI integration and tangible cash flows provide hedges against volatility.
PE firms are adopting a more cautious, conviction-based stance. Higher-for-longer interest rates and AI/geopolitical disruptions encourage underwriting rigor and flexibility on valuations.
While overall PE volume may flatten, opportunities persist in asset-heavy sectors like energy and infrastructure for reliable returns.
This divergence reflects a “tale of two markets.” Deloitte‘s 2026 M&A Trends Survey describes high optimism tempered by macroeconomic signals, with ample room for mid-market deals alongside megadeals.
KPMG‘s global outlook similarly highlights rebuilding pipelines and portfolio optimization through carve-outs.
Global M&A rebounded strongly in 2025, with values up around 36-40% in many reports, driven by megadeals and AI momentum. The US captured a disproportionate share of value, underscoring its leadership.
Entering 2026, analysts from BCG and others note cautious confidence amid uneven regional momentum, but US strength in tech, financial services, and energy persists.
Mitch Berlin, EY Americas Vice Chair for EY-Parthenon, emphasizes that disruption catalyzes action: leading executives deploy deals to secure AI advantages, protect margins, and outperform rivals.
Success will hinge on disciplined execution, clear value creation theses, and agility in an increasingly complex environment.
While significant headwinds still remain, US dealmaking demonstrates resilience. The EY update has now concluded that corporate industry professionals prioritizing strategic transformation over short-term caution are positioning themselves for long-term advantage in an AI-enabled digital economy.