Legislation aiming to halt any members of Congress or their immediate family from participating in prediction markets was introduced in the House of Representatives today. Representative Bryan Steil submitted the Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act.
There is already significant public criticism of legislators who trade shares and do rather well. Representative Steil says, “The American people deserve to know their Member of Congress is not profiting off insider information. The Stop Lawmakers from Predicting Act ensures that cannot happen. This legislation is critical to restoring the public’s trust in their elected officials. Lawmakers should be writing policy, not wagering on its outcome.”
Currently, there is no rule that prohibits members from placing bets on platforms such as Polymarket or Kalshi.
The legislation aims to achieve the following:
- Bans Members, their spouses, and dependent children from utilizing prediction markets to wager on a specific government policy, government action, or political outcome.
Violators of the proposal would pay a fee equal to $2,000 or 10% of the value of the prohibited transaction (whichever is greater), plus the net gain realized from the transaction. - Members cannot use their Members’ Representational Allowance, Senate personnel and office expense account, or political contributions or donations to pay the fine.
Members who resign or retire without paying the fine can be referred to the DOJ for civil enforcement.
The Stop Insider Trading Act, another bill sponsored by Steil, was introduced in January of this year. As the name implies, this legislation aims to block members from trading securities. Members of both parties appear to have exceptional talent in beating the market. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi holds a portfolio valued at over $130 milion. Representative Warren Davidson reportedly earned the best performance in 2025, generating a 78.8% return.