PitchBook has indicated that the first half of 2026 has delivered exceptional venture capital activity in the United States, though much of the momentum remains concentrated among a handful of artificial intelligence leaders.
PitchBook’s 2026 US Venture Capital Outlook Midyear Update, released in late June, evaluates progress against four key forecasts made at the end of 2025: improving limited partner sentiment, a surge in early-stage dealmaking, sustained strength in late-stage investments, and a gradual return of liquidity.
Early-stage financing is performing in line with expectations and appears headed for new highs.
Through May 31, the pace of first-time financings points to more than 7,000 deals for the full year — a record that would surpass previous peaks by over 1,300 transactions.
Artificial intelligence is a major catalyst, dramatically lowering the cost and complexity of launching new companies.
A record 63 percent of companies incorporated through Stripe Atlas in the second quarter of 2026 were founded by a single person.
Leading multistage investors have leaned into this trend, with firms such as Andreessen Horowitz completing dozens of seed and Series A or B rounds by mid-June.
Late-stage and venture-growth activity has been even more striking. Year-to-date through May, late-stage deals totaled $59.3 billion across roughly 1,990 transactions.
Venture-growth capital reached an extraordinary $274.2 billion in just five months — more than double the full-year 2025 total.
This performance, however, is heavily skewed toward AI foundation-model companies.
Four rounds involving OpenAI, Anthropic (twice), and xAI accounted for 86.4 percent of all venture-growth capital deployed so far this year.
Median deal sizes for AI companies at Series D and later stages ran 57 percent higher than those for non-AI peers.
The concentration has driven unicorn valuations sharply higher. The aggregate post-money valuation of active US unicorns climbed to $6.6 trillion year-to-date, propelled largely by AI standouts.
Anthropic reached a $965 billion post-money valuation and OpenAI hit $852 billion, with Databricks and Waymo also among the top names.
Fundraising has rebounded but remains concentrated among larger players. Commitments reached $62.4 billion through the first five months of 2026, putting the year on track for one of the stronger annual totals in recent history.
Funds larger than $1 billion captured nearly 72 percent of year-to-date capital, while first-time managers accounted for less than 10 percent. Sovereign wealth funds and megafunds have been particularly active.
Liquidity has improved selectively. The first quarter featured record exit volumes, highlighted by massive private rounds.
SpaceX completed its IPO in June at a $1.75 trillion valuation, with shares rising 19 percent on the first day of trading.
The deal generated more liquidity than all VC-backed IPOs over the prior decade combined.
Anthropic and OpenAI have confidentially filed for IPOs, and their outcomes are expected to set important benchmarks for AI valuations and broader market sentiment.
PitchBook notes that second-half trends are likely to echo the first half.
Mega-IPOs will remain the dominant story, secondaries are gaining traction as a liquidity channel, and deal activity should stay robust even as capital flows remain concentrated.
The continued strength of AI investment will depend heavily on positive public-market reception of these high-profile listings. PitchBook has concluded that despite external headwinds, the sector has shown notable resilience, underscoring how technological innovation continues to reshape venture capital ecosystems.