Visa (NYSE: V) Business and Economic Insights has released its Midyear Global Economic Outlook, projecting that the world economy will expand by 2.4 percent this year. While elevated energy costs continue to strain household budgets, a robust wave of business spending on artificial intelligence, clean energy, and more secure supply chains is helping sustain momentum and prevent sharper slowdowns.
Chief Economist Wayne Best noted that consumers are finding new ways to manage tighter finances through digital channels.
Rather than cutting back dramatically, many are actively comparing prices and hunting for better deals online, which in turn helps moderate overall price increases.
The report identifies three main dynamics supporting the outlook: households adapting their spending patterns without retreating sharply, digital commerce serving as a natural check on inflation, and a broad upswing in corporate investment that is carrying growth forward.
Consumer behavior remains resilient even as costs rise.
Data shows discretionary spending holding relatively steady, with early signs of stabilization.
Consumers are shifting toward value-seeking strategies, particularly in online environments where price transparency is higher.
This adjustment, Visa economists emphasize, differs from a outright pullback and reflects a more measured response compared with earlier periods of inflation pressure.
Digital commerce is playing a particularly important role in smaller and mid-sized cities.
Online shopping adoption in these “peripheral” markets has risen sharply since before the pandemic, climbing from roughly 31 percent to 56 percent across nearly 600 cities analyzed.
In places such as Bern, Switzerland, and San Juan, Puerto Rico, the share of card-not-present transactions has increased dramatically.
Greater online participation gives consumers more options to compare offers and switch to lower-cost alternatives, intensifying competition among sellers and contributing to softer price growth in those communities.
At the same time, the global economy is experiencing its strongest industrial investment cycle since 2010.
Capital spending across the United States, European Union, and China is rising in tandem as companies accelerate deployment of AI technologies, pursue cleaner energy sources, and strengthen supply chains.
This synchronized investment wave is broadening into job creation and supporting overall economic activity even as energy costs climb.
Key findings from the outlook underscore that current conditions resemble an adjustment phase rather than a collapse in demand.
Markets with higher digital penetration are seeing measurable benefits in the form of increased price competition.
Meanwhile, the investment surge in AI infrastructure and related areas is viewed as a structural positive that should help the economy navigate near-term headwinds.
The full Visa Business and Economic Insights 2026 Midyear Global Economic Outlook is available on Visa’s website for further reading.
The analysis draws on proprietary transaction data, economic modeling, and broader trend research to provide timely perspective on consumer behavior, payments evolution, and macroeconomic developments.
Visa operates one of the world’s digital payments networks, connecting consumers, merchants, financial institutions, and governments across more than 200 countries and territories. Its mission centers on delivering various payment solutions that support economic growth.