The early effects of the ceasefire and an interesting take on tokenization highlight our Web3 Thoughts of the Week.
CLARITY Act – tokenization legislation
“While the US Congress debates how to fit tokenization into existing securities law, and European leaders build legal frameworks around third-party assets, they are missing the larger shift in institutional capital.
“For years, global financial hubs operated as sophisticated marketplaces that traded assets produced elsewhere. Now, however, jurisdictions that will actually capture the next decade of institutional capital, are the ones moving from permission to production.
“The competitive advantage has shifted from those who can trade the asset to those who can digitize it at the source. While the growth of funds like BlackRock’s BUIDL and new institutional rails from Nasdaq are evidence of the optimization of secondary markets, they still remain sophisticated storefronts trading assets produced elsewhere.
“The next frontier for institutional capital is the factory floor. These are the sovereign jurisdictions that actually own and manufacture the primary supply of tokenized real world assets. When Saudi Arabia integrated its Real Estate Registry on-chain, it tokenized the primary supply chain of a G20 economy. That native integration removes the third-party wrapper risks that obstruct demand.
“Projections of a $19 trillion tokenization wave often focus on which network will win the trading volume, assuming the asset supply already exists. The hardest problem is manufacturing the assets’ legal and digital existence at the point of origin. Critical, high-value assets will only go on-chain if they are approved at the sovereign level.
“The winner of the tokenization race will be the jurisdiction that has the willingness to industrialize its primary sovereign supply, early.”
– Faisal Al Monai, CEO of droppRWA
Effects of ceasefire
“Markets are acting like the war is already over, but now the hard work starts. Of course, the ceasefire finally brings a piece of good news for the region, and hope that it will result in an end to the war. But much remains unresolved and uncertain.
“This includes the key questions: whether Trump has achieved his objectives and, crucially, whether the Strait of Hormuz will indeed reopen. For now, it’s a fragile truce at best.
“Brent is down significantly to around $93 a barrel, which is a relief. But how long will it take to drop back below $80? The damage to infrastructure is extensive and will likely take months to repair. And the longer oil remains above $90, the more it will seep into inflation numbers – an impact that will already begin to show in Friday’s CPI release.
“For Bitcoin, like other risk assets, this has been a welcome upward catalyst. However, at the current level above $71k, it once again faces strong resistance that it has repeatedly struggled to clear. If it manages, we could see a rally toward the $90k mark over the coming months. For now, the recovery is fragile.”
– Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau
“Bitcoin’s dominance is showing up clearly in market pricing and ETF flows, but much less so on-chain. The most likely explanation is that BTC is increasingly being used as a financial asset by investors who aren’t active on-chain.
“The clearest evidence is in ETF flows: in March, net inflows favored Bitcoin over Ether by 28:1. BTC market cap dominance also rose to 56.1%, a multi-year high. On-chain, the signal is weaker.
“Over the past seven days, fee generation was led by Tron at $6.9 million (+0.8% transaction growth, +10.0% user growth), followed by Solana at $4.0 million (-6.3%, +9.8%), BNB Chain at $2.2 million (-2.8%, +4.5%), Ethereum at $2.0 million (-2.6%, +3.9%), and Bitcoin at $1.1 million (-6.3%, +0.9%). In practical terms, this means users are still transacting and generating activity on other chains, while Bitcoin plays a smaller role in day-to-day on-chain usage.
“Looking ahead, March headline CPI is expected to rise significantly compared to February, with energy inflation likely pushing it above 3% YoY. Rate markets have already priced out Fed rate cuts for 2026, and I don’t expect higher headline inflation alone to shift expectations toward rate hikes, unless the geopolitical situation deteriorates further and oil prices surge above $120 per barrel.
“BTC’s moves, and whether it can break above the $70K resistance, will likely depend on how the situation in the Middle East evolves. A sustained move above $70K would likely require de-escalation, potentially involving Gulf countries and China negotiating with Iran and conceding to some of its demands, such as guaranteed passage through the Strait of Hormuz. It would also require no further military escalation from the US or Israel.
“That’s a fragile and complex outcome, requiring alignment across multiple countries. Until then, volatility is likely to persist.”
– Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at Nansen