I don’t think Bitcoin is ever going to go back below $60,000. I think forever
“I think the base case for Bitcoin is basically that you get higher lows, and you do have these run-ups that happen roughly every four years. I would say that if you get control of some of these looming risks or threats, that’s a good setup. The more important part is what happens in the world more broadly with regards to liquidity in financial markets. The more circulating money supply in a broad sense, the higher Bitcoin goes. I think Bitcoin should be thought of as a counterpoint to what’s happening on the central bank side, or the treasury side.
“So it sounds crazy to say Bitcoin at $1 million from our vantage point, but I’m sure it sounded crazy to say $100,000 Bitcoin if you’re in 2018. So you kind of end up shifting the window of the realm of possibilities, and in a way, it’s debasement. You’re updating the unit of account because we’re just spending so much more money.
“My personal view is that I don’t think Bitcoin is ever going to go back below $60,000. I think forever.
“You have to keep in mind, Bitcoin is the counterpoint to the central bank’s endless printing of money. There’s nothing that suggests that we’re going to stop printing money; on the contrary, probably.
“Bitcoin is kind of the most well-known way to counter that, except for maybe gold. That’s why I do think it’s going to be part of a lot of people’s portfolios, both retail and institutions. And in 2030, I think a million dollars per Bitcoin is definitely within the realm of possibility.”
– Nansen co-founder and CEO Alex Svanevik
“US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $850 million last week, the strongest weekly inflow since April. But the more telling story is what Bitcoin did around it. The asset absorbed two very different stress tests in the same week: the Coldcard breach, one of the largest hardware wallet exploits on record at over $100 million, and the BIP-110 fork attempt. Through both, Bitcoin held firm above $65,000, up from around $58,000 at the start of July.
“The two headlines make an important distinction clear. BIP-110 was a test of Bitcoin’s governance, and the network passed. With support from barely 2% of miners, the breakaway chain stalled within hours while the main chain carried on uninterrupted. By contrast, Coldcard was not a failure of Bitcoin at all; it was a failure of a single infrastructure vendor. A firmware flaw dating back to 2021 quietly weakened the randomness used to generate private keys, and thousands of security-conscious holders who did everything right paid the price.
“The Coldcard incident shows that self-custody doesn’t remove risk; it concentrates it on the individual, who must get key generation, firmware, backups and inheritance right, indefinitely, with no recourse if any link fails.
“Regulated custody introduces a counterparty, but a supervised one. For most investors, that trade is worth understanding honestly. A maturing market isn’t one where everyone holds their own keys. It’s one where investors can choose the custody model whose risks they are genuinely equipped to manage.
“Fundamentally, Bitcoin is a liquidity-sensitive asset. Historically, it has performed strongly when liquidity is abundant, and interest rates are low, while higher rates and tighter financial conditions have put it under pressure.”
“This is the lens through which long-term Bitcoin holders will view today’s CPI print. The significance was never going to be in the headline figure itself, but in what it signals for the future path of interest rates and liquidity. A result that makes looser monetary policy more likely would be constructive for Bitcoin; one that reinforces a higher-for-longer outlook would act as a headwind.
“For those long-term holders, the significance lies in the direction of travel, not a single release. Bitcoin’s longer-term case won’t be settled by a single inflation print or policy decision, even as near-term prices continue to be driven by where the market thinks rates and liquidity are heading.”
– Gadi Chait, head of investments, Xapo Bank
“With price trading inside this band, the largest concentration of holders across any narrow $3,000 range keeps moving between profit and loss and a large volume of coins changes hands as a result. That’s typical holder behaviour. A breakout needs fresh demand, absent supply, or both. This week delivered neither and for the first time this year the supply side can be identified in the cohort data.”
“The multi-year holder base within this cohort carries a realised price below $49,000 and is not the seller, so there is no mass exodus. Addresses holding more than 1000 BTC or whale balances reached a 2026 high to 3.06 million BTC as of 8 August, this puts the largest entities on the other side of the trade. What changed this week is the arrival of buyers at the top of the range, entering long-term holder status. Losses dominating cohort spending is the behaviour of a late-stage bear market rather than a distribution top.”
“We rank the signals to watch in this order. First, the flow response, whether the ETF run resumes or the outflow streak extends. Second, the cohort response on any test of $62,000-$63,000, whether the profitability gradient accelerates long-term holder loss-taking or exhausts it. Third, the rates reaction itself.
“The range’s exits are unchanged. Upside requires acceptance above the $65,021-$65,510 band on a daily close. Two daily closes above $68,300, where the short-term holder cost basis meets the April monthly open, would end the structure entirely.”
– Bitfinex