US Representative Don Davis of North Carolina has introduced legislation intended to stop people seeking federal office from buying, selling, or holding prediction market contracts that resolve based on their own campaigns.
The measure, titled the No Betting on Your Own Race Act, was filed on October 5, 2026, during a pro forma House session.
It would amend federal election law to treat such activity as a civil violation.
Under the proposal, a covered person could not acquire, dispose of, or maintain any direct or indirect interest in a contract whose payoff depends on that person’s primary, caucus, convention, nomination contest, or general election.
The restriction also covers markets tied to whether the individual enters or remains in a race, and markets that settle on vote share, margin of victory, or finishing position.
Indirect interest is defined broadly enough to include directing or inducing another person to take a position, funding someone else’s trade while knowing its purpose, or holding a beneficial stake under another name.
The prohibition would reach the candidate, a spouse, a dependent child, and the candidate’s authorized campaign committee.
Platforms and their employees would not face penalties under the new section and would be protected from liability if they act in good faith to block a violation, for example by restricting an account or canceling a position. Enforcement would follow existing campaign-finance procedures.
Each violation would carry a civil fine equal to the greater of $10,000 or three times any net financial gain attributable to the conduct.
The rules would apply to activity occurring on or after the date of enactment, and candidates would be notified of the ban during the filing period.
Davis framed the idea as an extension of standards already applied to sports.
He argued that federal candidates should be barred from trading on contests they can influence, just as athletes are barred from betting on their own games, in order to reduce the risk of market interference, use of nonpublic information, and personal profit from campaign decisions.
He also noted that candidates from both parties have already placed such trades and that a statutory rule would create a uniform expectation for campaign committees.
The filing follows an enforcement action by the prediction-market platform Kalshi against Davis’s Republican opponent in North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, Laurie Buckhout.
In August 2026, Kalshi determined that Buckhout had traded contracts linked to her own candidacy.
She paid a penalty of slightly under $2,600 and accepted a three-year suspension from the platform.
Buckhout later described the trades as a mistake she corrected after identifying the problem.
Davis had previously called the episode a serious breach of public trust.
Platforms such as Kalshi have already imposed their own bans on candidates trading their own races, citing insider-trading concerns, and earlier this year suspended several other congressional hopefuls for similar activity.
A Senate resolution adopted in April restricted senators and staff from trading on prediction markets, but it did not cover non-incumbent Senate candidates.
Comparable House proposals have been discussed but not enacted. Because the House is not expected to hold votes again until after the November midterms, the new bill is unlikely to affect the current election cycle even if it advances later.