In a survey of crypto participants, a majority 81.6% believed that the crypto bull run was not yet over. This, according to an update shared by CoinGecko.
At least 1 in 2 participants, or 52.3%, “estimated that the current bull run was still at its starting or early stages,” the team at CoinGecko noted in a blog post.
Another 29.3% estimated the market “to be midway through the bull run,” the report from CooinGeco revealed.
In contrast, only 18.4% gauged that “the current crypto bull market was in its late stage or had already reached its end,” the CoinGecko report added.
As was the case with participants’ crypto market sentiment, investors “were the most optimistic. 55.5% of investors estimated that the current bull run was at the start or early stage, and 28.8% estimated it to be in the middle.”
The research report pointed out that this “adds up to a total 84.3% of investors who thought that the bull run was not over yet.”
Traders and builders were more cautious, “with slightly lower consensus at 78.6% of traders and 74.9% of builders estimating that the bull run was not over.”
Newcomers and veteran crypto natives shared similar estimates “for where the market was in the current cycle. Specifically, estimates for the starting or early stages were made by 52.7% of participants in their first cycle (0 to 3 years of crypto experience), 52.2% of second cyclers (4 to 7 years) and 51.8% of third cyclers or beyond (8 or more years).”
CoinGecko also mentioned that “the main difference was that a higher 23.4% share of veterans estimated the market to be in its late or ending stages, compared to 17.6% for both first and second cyclers.”
In other words, having different years of crypto experience did “not seem to significantly influence how participants viewed the current cycle’s bull run.”
Instead, there was a similar distribution “of optimistic and pessimistic opinions” across all three groups.”
In a separate question on common market beliefs, 60.4% of participants identified most closely with the statement “We have not yet peaked for this cycle, the market will go up again.” This was almost three times as many as the 21.3% of participants who identified most strongly with “We are in a supercycle, so the market will continue pumping.”
In other words, a combined 81.7% of participants believed “that the market would see a bullish continuation, either because crypto had yet to peak or had entered a supercycle state.”
This further reinforces the above “consensus view that the current crypto bull run is not over yet and still has upside potential.”
The remaining responses include 8.1% of participants who believed most in “We have already peaked for this cycle, market will only go down from here”, 6.1% for “We are near the peak now, so it is time to take profits and exit the market”, and the remaining 4.1% indicated “I’ve been sidelined so I don’t care.”
Notably, a slightly higher 66.7% share “of second cyclers believed that the current cycle had yet to peak, compared to 55.2% of first cyclers and 58.9% of third cyclers or beyond.”
On the other hand, second cyclers were also “slightly more skeptical about the crypto supercycle theory with just 18.3% believing in that statement.”
Methodology
The study examined 2,558 crypto participants’ responses in “the anonymous CoinGecko Post-Halving Sentiment Survey from June 25 to July 8, 2024. Survey results should be taken as indicative only.”
Among the survey participants, CoinGccko pointed out that 69% considered themselves “as crypto investors with mainly long-term holdings, 18% identified as traders with mainly shorter-term holdings, 7% as builders and 6% as sidelined spectators.”
In terms of how long participants had “been in crypto, 46% were in their first cycle (0 to 3 years in crypto), 41% in their second cycle (4 to 7 years) and the remaining participants were veterans with 8 or more years of experience.”
