As the GOP devolves into finger-pointing and name-calling, the prediction markets are benefiting from the entire melodrama.
As the whole world knows now, Elon Musk and President Trump are no longer best buddies. The epicenter of the breakup is the Big Beautiful Bill, the tax and spending legislation that Trump wants to sign into law. Musk, on the other hand, says the bill can be big or beautiful, but it cannot be both, criticizing the current language, which will blow out the national debt to a higher amount.
Trump has taken to social media, claiming Musk knew everything in the bill prior to it moving forward. Once EV subsidies were revealed, Musk “went crazy.”
Musk denies this as false, lambasting the President for not telling the truth while making other claims like the Epstein files have not been released because Trump is part of the scandal.
It is a big political mess foisted upon the masses because of two enormous egos. It has polarized the fiscal hawks and MAGA populists, fracturing the Republican party.
So, who is benefiting? The prediction markets, of course, now have multiple event-driven contracts based on the outcome of the entire saga.
On Polymarket, there is only a 22% chance that the Trump and Epstein files will be made public in 2025.
Will Musk endorse the Big Beautiful Bill? A slim 6% believe it.
Will Musk create a new political party, something he has promoted on X, before December 31st? There is a 29% chance of this happening.
Do people expect Elon Musk to unfollow President Trump at some point during the year? Kalshi anticipates a 69% of this event.
Conversely, will Trump unfollow Musk? Current odds are about the same at 66%.
All of these predictions can and will change.
While some people think the two former friends will eventually hug it out, in the interim, the war of words is providing some entertainment as well as opportunity for these new prediction markets.
