As tensions escalate in the Middle East, the global energy market is bracing for potential upheaval. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) is referencing Polymarket to assess the probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil shipments. Approximately 30% of the world’s oil is from the Middle East, with around 20% of the world’s oil currently moving through the Strait. ZeroHedge first highlighted this betting market on the prediction site.
Polymarket is a top event prediction platform where users can place bets on many types of events. For example, another current bet is whether the US will officially declare war on Iran before July. As of this moment, Polymarket has this at just 2%.
Polymarket has posted a statement on the region and events:
Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.
This reliance on crowd-sourced data marks a growing trend among financial institutions, reflecting Polymarket’s accuracy, notably after outperforming traditional pollsters in the recent U.S. election cycle.
Goldman using Polymarket for oil price analysis https://t.co/7n7GfGGwu2 pic.twitter.com/JA0csVar2j
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 22, 2025
The bank’s latest analysis highlights a high probability of disruption in 2025, driven by mounting regional conflicts.
President Donald Trump’s call for an “unconditional surrender” from Iran on June 17, 2025. So far, Iran has been bellicose in its response.
If Iran attempts to close the passage, the US could increase its attack on the nation.
JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank have warned that a complete closure of the Strait could send oil prices soaring to $120 per barrel, a stark contrast to their fair value estimate of $65.
Goldman Sachs echoes this forecast, predicting Brent crude will average $76 per barrel in 2025, though a six-month disruption of Iranian exports could push prices near $90.
